Pardon the clickbaity title.
I pulled the stats of average bear markets off of a youtube video I watched a while ago, and studied how the average bull market looks when it begins last week, went through all the dow charts, spy and qqq charts
Basically, our current monthly chart looks nothing like the beggining of a bull market. Volatility is way too high, no fund in their right mind would be buying up here, why? Because vol is so high prices will probably just go lower and you can scoop them up from prices lower than here.
Yield curves are also wild rn, highest they've been in ages, and we know that the average bear market with a recesssion takes SPX down about 40%~ from highs, or another 30% from here (high margin of error due to the great depression being included, I believe, just assume we hit the average bear market or something IMO)
All that being said:
-We've had a very poor bull market setup, which is failing,
-Yield curves, which are incredibly reliable are predicting a recession
and many things just broke down, from good setups, on their daily charts.
Today, and tomorrow, would be a low risk (kinda low winrate) opportunity to start building short positions, or definitely taking cash off if you're a long-only trader.
I currently have UVIX, NRGD and LABD. Started entering a few days ago and added uvix today. I'm normally too early on these things, but the opportunity is there for a long term move from the range we're building on the spy.
I pulled the stats of average bear markets off of a youtube video I watched a while ago, and studied how the average bull market looks when it begins last week, went through all the dow charts, spy and qqq charts
Basically, our current monthly chart looks nothing like the beggining of a bull market. Volatility is way too high, no fund in their right mind would be buying up here, why? Because vol is so high prices will probably just go lower and you can scoop them up from prices lower than here.
Yield curves are also wild rn, highest they've been in ages, and we know that the average bear market with a recesssion takes SPX down about 40%~ from highs, or another 30% from here (high margin of error due to the great depression being included, I believe, just assume we hit the average bear market or something IMO)
All that being said:
-We've had a very poor bull market setup, which is failing,
-Yield curves, which are incredibly reliable are predicting a recession
and many things just broke down, from good setups, on their daily charts.
Today, and tomorrow, would be a low risk (kinda low winrate) opportunity to start building short positions, or definitely taking cash off if you're a long-only trader.
I currently have UVIX, NRGD and LABD. Started entering a few days ago and added uvix today. I'm normally too early on these things, but the opportunity is there for a long term move from the range we're building on the spy.
Comment:
Oh, chart on the bottom is nasdaq, who cares though they all look the same. The fact that the idea holds on different indices fortifies the point.
Comment:
I'm out of all shorts, the thesis was market crash. Market aint crashing