babychester

Paypal - Bullish and Bearish Scenario

Long
babychester Updated   
BATS:PYPL   PayPal Holdings, Inc.
3 Panel Chart

Top Right Chart:
-Daily chart using bollinger bands. Both bands are open, and price has been dragging along the bottom band. Price has pierced the bottom band several times, which doesn't happen very often. Sometimes when price stabs through a band, that could be a signal the strength of the move has peaked and is now slowing down. A clue to know for sure is to look at how both bands appear. If both bands are vertical, then the move is powerful. In this case, the upper band appears to be flattening, meaning the move is weakening.
-Also Friday's candle printed a bearish engulfing candle. This can be a bearish signal for the short term.

Left Chart:
-This weekly chart concerns me. First, a death cross occurred on July of 2022, and the 50 ma (green line) has been acting as resistance and pushing price down.
-Also price has been bouncing around in a descending parallel channel. Last week price broke and closed below this channel (yellow arrow) and this is what concerns me the most.
-In 2022 price fell below this channel (yellow oval) and had trouble getting back into the channel. It took 91 days for a confirmation candle to get back in .
-Usually when price breaks below a channel, that line now becomes resistance. If Paypal fails to get itself back into this channel, we could see price drop significantly while it tries to battle its way back inside.

Right Bottom Chart:
-This is the 2 month chart. I like this chart because it's a big picture chart, and is more accurate than the lower time frames.
-With the bollinger bands pulling price down on the daily, and price breaking below the descending channel on the weekly, Paypal could fall between the $47-$40 level.(Orange Parallel Lines)
-Here's the warning: If Paypal falls below the $40 level, we need to monitor this carefully because you don't want a 2 month candle to close below $30. (Purple line) Thirty dollars is Paypal's all time low, and closing below this could be a death spiral, because there's no support below this.
This hasn't occurred yet, nor are we close to it, so no need to panic over it. It's just something you should be mindful about.
-On a bullish note, $47 is Paypal's support level. Currently price is at $50. If price can bounce up from here, the weekly candle could possibly get itself back into the descending channel in the left chart. And potentially start heading to the upper line of the descending parallel channel.

The key to watch is the weekly chart on the left:
-If price fails to get back into the channel, then the bottom line will act as resistance, and push price lower.
-If price is able to get back into the channel, then watch the stochastic rsi. (Orange circle)
If the stoch starts to point upwards with a cross, then price could be heading up towards the upper line of the descending channel.

-Never have your mind set on price going up or down.
There's always a bullish and bearish scenario. And be ready to adjust when things change.
The only guarantee is that there are no guarantees.
Comment:
PAYPAL experienced a rise in price last week, and has gotten back into the descending parallel channel. (yellow arrow)

PAYPAL closed the week with a bullish engulfing candle, which could signal a short term rise in price.

The key I mentioned in the main post, was to watch the weekly stochastic rsi. (orange circle)
The stoch had its cross, and the K line (blue) was able to cross above the 20 level.
We are still waiting for the D line (red) to do the same as confirmation of the move.

The bollinger bands have started to close and looks like a squeeze may be in the future.
PAYPAL has peaked above the mid line, and this is positive. (orange rectangle)

The key is still to watch the weekly stoch rsi.
The D line hasn't closed above the 20 level yet, so price could still fall to the bottom or out of the parallel channel.
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