NZDCAD from a technical standpoint has very little to stand on and suggests further drops and strongly suggests price action is derived from sentiment driven event - likely the 'neighborly effect' of Trump dropping tariffs on Mexico and therefore also implies the same for Canada. Certainly shrugging off key pessimistic oil supply figures.
It's important to remember from a macro perspective that NZ is 'soft' commodity derived currency and not a 'hard' one. Oil and general commodity news would not have a direct transient profile on the Kiwi but rather it's key trading partners China, AU and US (in that order). With 2 locked in a trade war and the third export reliant and contingent on the outcome of said trade war, it is without a wonder that NZD is being pulled down as a secondary factor.
As for trading - this pair is free hanging without true support until 0.87 area so intraday short scalping is a opportunistic play here for those late on the short. Any long entries here would be shear 'knife catching' and 'bottom picking' which is ill advised despite grim immediate outlook for oil.
Expecting price to start tampering off as it nears 0.87 where bulls will also likely make a stand however likely to be a short lived retracement for additional short entries.
It's important to remember from a macro perspective that NZ is 'soft' commodity derived currency and not a 'hard' one. Oil and general commodity news would not have a direct transient profile on the Kiwi but rather it's key trading partners China, AU and US (in that order). With 2 locked in a trade war and the third export reliant and contingent on the outcome of said trade war, it is without a wonder that NZD is being pulled down as a secondary factor.
As for trading - this pair is free hanging without true support until 0.87 area so intraday short scalping is a opportunistic play here for those late on the short. Any long entries here would be shear 'knife catching' and 'bottom picking' which is ill advised despite grim immediate outlook for oil.
Expecting price to start tampering off as it nears 0.87 where bulls will also likely make a stand however likely to be a short lived retracement for additional short entries.
Comment:
However....
Daily shows structural pattern of reciprocal H&S pattern forming. Tends to support idea and whispers of oil reaching $40 again.
Reminder that oscillators are not very good at all for trending markets so consider shelving those for this trendy pair.
Personally have a long bias to NZDCAD but currently sitting out until I start seeing 0.87 support level get defended again. Extensions do support the idea of a H&S pattern completion however WAY TOO EARLY to tell and trading based on this is pure speculation.
Daily shows structural pattern of reciprocal H&S pattern forming. Tends to support idea and whispers of oil reaching $40 again.
Reminder that oscillators are not very good at all for trending markets so consider shelving those for this trendy pair.
Personally have a long bias to NZDCAD but currently sitting out until I start seeing 0.87 support level get defended again. Extensions do support the idea of a H&S pattern completion however WAY TOO EARLY to tell and trading based on this is pure speculation.
Potential continuation forming at around the lowest fib level....