NZDCAD continuation or reversal at support confluence ideas

NZDCAD have been in a bullish trend since late 2017 and have been steadily trading within the confounds of an ascending pitchfork. In early March we appear to have hit a swing high and have since been retracing in a channel downward. Despite a CAD heavy news week the market was left unimpressed with CAD performance and unable to break down further which may signal a possible end for the retracement. If price were to break down further we seem to be approaching an important level of support confluence. A trade for either trend continuation or a trend reversal may become possible before the month of April is over. Given the overall bull trend, the technical outlook right now looks to be weighted on the long side with risk on the short side.

There may be three scenarios at play depending on your outlook:

• Price bounces at the 0.5 pitchfork median and resumes the bullish trend.
  Price breaks down through the 0.5 pitchfork median and continues moving closer to support confluence, at which point the market reacts bullish and resumes the bullish trend. This would open up targets like the 2016 November resistance at 0.9470 to 0.9500.
  At support confluence, instead the market reacts bearish and breaks down out of the pitchfork formation reversing the trend.
  
  Whatever the case we should hope to see determination in whatever move the market makes in the form of a clean break to the upside or the downside. We don't want to see indecision in the market at any of the aforementioned junctures. Looking first closer at long entrie, the price zone seems to be around 0.9150 to 0.9200 based on the following lining up:
  
  Price looks to be trading in a bullish pitchfork and approaching the bottom trend line. However, note that price has previously only touched the bottom trend line twice, meaning there's not yet a three-touch confirmation.
  Price would be moving close to the 38.2% Fib level.
  Price would be closing the distance down to the 100 and 200 EMA. Both EMAs looks to be converging around the 0.9150 to 0.9200 price level.
  The psychological 0.9200 price level has often proven to act as a support/resistance level in previous years.
  
  Taking a closer look in favor of short entries for a reversal we can draw up a fib from June 2017 swing high down to the November 2017 swing low. We can see that the current swing high of March 2018 hits the final 78.6 fib retracement within a whopping 1 pip precision deviation. Comparing the fibs from June 2017 to November 2017, and the fib from November 2017 to March 2018, we can see high correlation where the levels line up together nicely. Also, at these retracement levels there have been some kind of price reaction either as a clean break or a consolidation period. If you are looking for CAD strength then fib targets of 0.9068 (38.2) , 0.8905 (23.6), and 0.8641 (0) may prove to be of interest.
  
  In either case, good luck out there and have fun.

Comment:

Price is continuing to trend downward and looks like it's finding support at the 0.5 lower median. Looking more near-term on the 4h time frame price have been attempting to break lower and the bulls and bears engaging at the median. So far the bulls have pushed harder than the bears and we need to see a break below this current low to approach the support confluence.

Comment:

Price looks to be breaking through to the downside, approaching confluence support.

Comment:

We're looking at the highlighted zone for possible entries. The zone is based on highs (January) and lows (February) as highlighted. 100/200 EMAs could possibly project to these dashed levels around the 50.0 retracement. The play is to watch for price finding support around this red zone and then bounce. Upon the next retest, we'll look for entry in lower time frames where price action indicates exhaustion.

This is a bullish trade. The point for trade invalidation is right below the 200 EMA intersecting with the pitchfork lower 1.0 median.

Comment:

Price hovered around the 0.9200 level and attempted to break down, bouncing off the lower 1.0 pitchfork median.