NIFTY50- 2024 Forecast
Nifty is trading in a channel from Jun22. In my opinion this channel to hold for another 3-4 Years. Most of the components of Nifty is also trading in a channel. Do not expect Nifty to move beyond this channel for long time.
Book profit at the top of the channel and buy at the bottom / midpoint of the channel.
Major Factors to Consider in 2024
1) Election
As per Bloomberg 40 Nation under go General Election in 2024.
Government of India
USA
Taiwan (Very critical election for both China and USA)
European Union (Very Critical for geopolitics).
Mexico
South Africa
2) India Vix
India Vix is rising day by day. Likely to top at 25-30. US Vix is also rising due to election.
Those who are taking BTST & STBT trades caution. 2023 tricks may not work in 2024. The Fluctuations in the market very high. Stop Loss margin in intraday will increase.
3. Indian Financial Year end (April to March)
Market always moves according to financial cycle. As you can see in last financial year(2022-23). Nifty bottomed out on 20th March. When 2023-24 financial year started, from that time till date Nifty in upward direction. We need to wait and see will there be profit booking in March, or they will carry this position to 2023-24 financial cycle. My prediction is, there will be profit booking in order to fund the General Election. (Or may be possibility of pledge the share for money).
Avoid Fresh ATH breakout till financial closure. This might trap you guys for long time.
4. Government Sectors
This year election may see lot of subsidy for the general public. Use your imagination.
5. Last Budget of current Government before Election.
Go through government website on Budget, Fantastic presentation from government of India on budget
As per this presentation
Defense sector being High allotment of budget
Following Road Transportation, Railway, Consumer Affairs, Home affairs, Chemical and fertilizers.
New FDI on New technology manufacturers, like Electronic Manufacturing Sectors, Mobile, Laptop other electronic gadget Manufacturing. Medical Labs and research Centers. Medical equipment manufacturing Companies etc. (Comment below the Companies working on this Sector).
6. Breakthrough in Banking / NBFC Sectors
As the interest rate cut begins, Loans likely to increase. Housing projects, Vehicle Loans, Credit cards, Insurance, Mutual Fund inflow likely to increase.
Nifty is trading in a channel from Jun22. In my opinion this channel to hold for another 3-4 Years. Most of the components of Nifty is also trading in a channel. Do not expect Nifty to move beyond this channel for long time.
Book profit at the top of the channel and buy at the bottom / midpoint of the channel.
Major Factors to Consider in 2024
1) Election
As per Bloomberg 40 Nation under go General Election in 2024.
Government of India
USA
Taiwan (Very critical election for both China and USA)
European Union (Very Critical for geopolitics).
Mexico
South Africa
2) India Vix
India Vix is rising day by day. Likely to top at 25-30. US Vix is also rising due to election.
Those who are taking BTST & STBT trades caution. 2023 tricks may not work in 2024. The Fluctuations in the market very high. Stop Loss margin in intraday will increase.
3. Indian Financial Year end (April to March)
Market always moves according to financial cycle. As you can see in last financial year(2022-23). Nifty bottomed out on 20th March. When 2023-24 financial year started, from that time till date Nifty in upward direction. We need to wait and see will there be profit booking in March, or they will carry this position to 2023-24 financial cycle. My prediction is, there will be profit booking in order to fund the General Election. (Or may be possibility of pledge the share for money).
Avoid Fresh ATH breakout till financial closure. This might trap you guys for long time.
4. Government Sectors
This year election may see lot of subsidy for the general public. Use your imagination.
5. Last Budget of current Government before Election.
Go through government website on Budget, Fantastic presentation from government of India on budget
As per this presentation
Defense sector being High allotment of budget
Following Road Transportation, Railway, Consumer Affairs, Home affairs, Chemical and fertilizers.
New FDI on New technology manufacturers, like Electronic Manufacturing Sectors, Mobile, Laptop other electronic gadget Manufacturing. Medical Labs and research Centers. Medical equipment manufacturing Companies etc. (Comment below the Companies working on this Sector).
6. Breakthrough in Banking / NBFC Sectors
As the interest rate cut begins, Loans likely to increase. Housing projects, Vehicle Loans, Credit cards, Insurance, Mutual Fund inflow likely to increase.
