NASDAQ -FINAL WAVE to complete cycle V? too much FUD in markets?
(Will Update with detailed analysis)
Looking at NDX chart in the longterm, we can get an idea the grande finale is close.
At current moment, the general sentiment is way too bearish, too much fear in markets and too many good quality stocks that are near cycle lows. It makes more sense to favor higher price action.
NDX has retraced beyond 0.786/0.764 FIB, indicating that move up as a wave 2 is no longer valid. It *could* be a wave B, but a wave B isnt going to resume much lower when this much FEAR is present or when the RSI is this oversold.
A retest is necessary, in which a stop loss should be placed~ 14200 area
Normally at the tops, I would exercise caution and favor shorting, but here after reanalyzing the charts, I have to favor further upside with the 2022 low as some type of larger degree wave 4 ended (as mentioned, we've retraced above the 0.786 and probability favors further upside).
Looking at NDX chart in the longterm, we can get an idea the grande finale is close.
At current moment, the general sentiment is way too bearish, too much fear in markets and too many good quality stocks that are near cycle lows. It makes more sense to favor higher price action.
NDX has retraced beyond 0.786/0.764 FIB, indicating that move up as a wave 2 is no longer valid. It *could* be a wave B, but a wave B isnt going to resume much lower when this much FEAR is present or when the RSI is this oversold.
A retest is necessary, in which a stop loss should be placed~ 14200 area
Normally at the tops, I would exercise caution and favor shorting, but here after reanalyzing the charts, I have to favor further upside with the 2022 low as some type of larger degree wave 4 ended (as mentioned, we've retraced above the 0.786 and probability favors further upside).
Comment:
Can compare the top area to the dot-com bubble
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an alternative wave count to consider, still has a similar setup, just the degree of the wave that changes.
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Projections, calculations, wave counts, targets:
targets were all hit well (rather bullish when it fully reaches/passes the 1.618 extension)
Comment:
for those of you (young) guys crying/yelling 'new bull market' bull market still alive, etc etc, well keep in mind that after the dot-com bubble ended in 2002, 100's of BILLIONS of $ re-entered markets, and after the first "shake out" in 2008 during the 'financial crisis/housing market crash'.....100s of BILLIONS MORE re-entered markets, yes of course 100s of MILLIONS and perhaps billions were washed out, liquidated and lost, but the point is the bull market cycle started from way back in late 2008/early 2009. Fast forward to 2022/2023, thats over 12 yrs of bullish uptrend, which is going to come to an end sooner or later. The people who invested back in the early 2000's, they made hugh profits and THAT was the BEST time to have invested. Entering markets near the end of 2020 or after, well, that has been the ending phase of the bull market, a bit of 'too little, too late'. Sure, can still bank profits no doubt, but keep in mind that those early investors are here selling to new buyers. So if you're a buyer, make sure your primarly focus is profits and aim to de-risk as much as possible while taking profits along the way (like taking small bites of freshly baked warm apple pie). NFA, just sharing my thoughts and pov in hopes it can help or enlighten ya.
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move up as a "Wave 2" was "invalididated" by extending beyond the 0.786 FIB. EWT states that a wave 2 cannot extend beyond the 0.786 FIB retracement level of the measured move down. So to narrow down probabilities, we can favor this move up as #1) a wave B which is typically much more choppy and sluggish or #2) a new wave started either a wave 5 ending or a wave 1 brand new bull cycle.....at these highs, I avoid being overly bullish (for now), but the structure matches 1 of my theories I had prior to end of bull market. Im choosing the lather here and gunna favor the move down as a wave 4 with the recent move up off the low as a wave 5 to complete the bull market cycle started since 2008/2009.
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incomplete sequence??
further downside??
or
or
further downside??
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A POV
RSI can be counted with 5 waves as well with 3 often being the peak and 5 shwing weaknnes against peak of 3, amounting to divergence. (often NOT always)
RSI can be counted with 5 waves as well with 3 often being the peak and 5 shwing weaknnes against peak of 3, amounting to divergence. (often NOT always)
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until markets prove me wrong or show me otherwise, I am favoring this count and this view, anticipating a new ATH before end of 2023
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current view, favoring the move down as incomplete and another leg down before retest the ATH.