Today with the retail sales we have many chances to start the downtrend , if no , next week for sure.
1.Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 expected to be the lowest for earnings and retail sales.
2.M1 , M2 money supply are in the lowest level since January 2023.
3.Fed's balance sheet still shrinking
4.10 Year bonds will reach 5 %
5.Unemployment rate will go over 4%
6.30 Year mortgage rate it is at the highest level since year of 2000.
7.Consumer credit is dropping down.
Overall I see the connection based on the consumer credit dropping down ,leads to dropping down in spending and the GDP going down togheter with retail sales.
Unemployment rate will be a key role in everything.
The recession starts with Q4 and will last most probably till Q2 2024 , yesterday the CPI is showing that we are entering in the deflation period.
Because in these days looks like the economy and politics are conected to climate change it is very clear that spending more , leads to more fossil fuels consumption and this is producing more carbon.
The stock market is overvalued in this moment.
All other things are just the noise made from market makers.
This is my scenario and not a financial advice , I am investing doing my own research.
1.Q4 2023 and Q1 2024 expected to be the lowest for earnings and retail sales.
2.M1 , M2 money supply are in the lowest level since January 2023.
3.Fed's balance sheet still shrinking
4.10 Year bonds will reach 5 %
5.Unemployment rate will go over 4%
6.30 Year mortgage rate it is at the highest level since year of 2000.
7.Consumer credit is dropping down.
Overall I see the connection based on the consumer credit dropping down ,leads to dropping down in spending and the GDP going down togheter with retail sales.
Unemployment rate will be a key role in everything.
The recession starts with Q4 and will last most probably till Q2 2024 , yesterday the CPI is showing that we are entering in the deflation period.
Because in these days looks like the economy and politics are conected to climate change it is very clear that spending more , leads to more fossil fuels consumption and this is producing more carbon.
The stock market is overvalued in this moment.
All other things are just the noise made from market makers.
This is my scenario and not a financial advice , I am investing doing my own research.