Natural gas rolls over, but risks remain on Middle East concerns

Natural gas prices across the US and Europe surged into multi-month highs this month, as the attack of Israel suddenly brought huge concerns around a Middle Eastern conflict that could have huge implications for trade and energy security going forward. Qatar is one of the main nations who could have significant influence over the coming weeks, with the country continuing to host Hamas leader Ismail Haniyeh. The country has long been a key contributor of humanitarian support for Palestine, and recent warnings signalled a willingness to cut gas supplies to the west if the attack on Gaza does't stop. While we are yet to hear similar comments over recent days, any further threats would likely bring further upside for gas prices. With the West already struggling to contain prices, the trajectory of energy markets will be key in driving inflation expectations going forward. The chart highlights how price has started to reverse lower after the initial rally, with the break below $3.378 completing an intraday double top formation. With that in mind, further downside could come into play as price falls back down towards trendline support. However, with an intensification of the Israel response likely, traders should be aware of the risk that such a move could spark another leg higher in gas and oil prices.