Good G20 outcome and nice technicals suggest bull market is still in good shape. Only near term risk I am seeing is the Fed not cutting rates in accordance with market expectations since Emerging Markets and global trade were previously hurt by a strong dollar. While the dovish Fedspeak has already put the wheel into motion for a lower dollar, the Fed needs to deliver sooner or later.
Another risk is if Trump and Xi's good showing in G20 was all kabuki theatre but I think that is unlikely. Certainly, the global economy is slowing but this time round markets are not caught off guard in 2019 - I believe the economic slowdown was already factored in during end-2018. Looking ahead, we are setting the stage for a reflation trade in the near future with fiscal and monetary stimulus; may look into the technicals of relevant commodities and emerging markets. For long-term investors, get ready to gradually load up on energy and metals.
Not for day traders.
Another risk is if Trump and Xi's good showing in G20 was all kabuki theatre but I think that is unlikely. Certainly, the global economy is slowing but this time round markets are not caught off guard in 2019 - I believe the economic slowdown was already factored in during end-2018. Looking ahead, we are setting the stage for a reflation trade in the near future with fiscal and monetary stimulus; may look into the technicals of relevant commodities and emerging markets. For long-term investors, get ready to gradually load up on energy and metals.
Not for day traders.