Alphabet / Google (GOOGL) - DCF Model - Intrinsic Value
This valuation analysis is based on a base case scenario DCF model.
Google DCF Model Assumptions:
Tax Rate = 16.2%
Discount Rate = 8.4%
Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0%
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
Transaction Date = 05/02/2022
Fiscal Year End = 31/12/2022
Current Price = 2,865.86
Shares Outstanding = 662
Debt = 26,206
Cash = 20,945
Capex = 24,640
Base Case Scenario:
In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 18%, 16%, 14%, 13%, 12%. These revenue growth assumptions are slightly below the analysts' forecasts at the time of analysis.
DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL:
Terminal Value
Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = $196,262
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $2,453,270
Intrinsic Value:
Enterprise Value (m) = $1,986,779
Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945
Less: Debt (m) = $26,206
Equity Value (m) = $1,981,518
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,992.69
DCF (5Y) GROWTH EXIT MODEL:
Terminal Value
Final Forecast FCFf (m) = $119,494
Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0%
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $1,902,831
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value (m) = $1,616,256
Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945
Less: Debt (m) = $26,206
Equity Value (m) = 1,610,995
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,433.09
DISCLAIMER:
All information and analysis are based on the author's views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing. Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information's reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors.
Any actions taken based on this information is strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information here or its website.
DISCLOSURE:
I/we have open long positions in GOOGL. We do not intend on altering this position in the coming weeks.
GOOGL
Google DCF Model Assumptions:
Tax Rate = 16.2%
Discount Rate = 8.4%
Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0%
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
Transaction Date = 05/02/2022
Fiscal Year End = 31/12/2022
Current Price = 2,865.86
Shares Outstanding = 662
Debt = 26,206
Cash = 20,945
Capex = 24,640
Base Case Scenario:
In addition to the above assumptions, the below DCF model is based on our base case scenario, which assumes a revenue growth over the next five years of 18%, 16%, 14%, 13%, 12%. These revenue growth assumptions are slightly below the analysts' forecasts at the time of analysis.
DCF (5Y) EBITDA EXIT MODEL:
Terminal Value
Final Forecast EBITDA (m) = $196,262
EV/EBITDA Multiple = 12.5x
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $2,453,270
Intrinsic Value:
Enterprise Value (m) = $1,986,779
Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945
Less: Debt (m) = $26,206
Equity Value (m) = $1,981,518
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,992.69
DCF (5Y) GROWTH EXIT MODEL:
Terminal Value
Final Forecast FCFf (m) = $119,494
Perpetual Growth Rate = 2.0%
TERMINAL VALUE (m) = $1,902,831
Intrinsic Value
Enterprise Value (m) = $1,616,256
Plus: Cash (m) = $20,945
Less: Debt (m) = $26,206
Equity Value (m) = 1,610,995
EQUITY VALUE / SHARE = $2,433.09
DISCLAIMER:
All information and analysis are based on the author's views, opinions, and assumptions at the time of writing. Bull Headed Bear makes no guarantees of the information's reliability and accuracy. The information is to be used for entertainment and informative purposes only. Bull Headed Bear and its authors reserve the right to change their views, opinions and assumptions due to many influencing factors.
Any actions taken based on this information is strictly at your own risk. All investments carry a risk of loss, and you could lose all your money. Consider seeking professional advice from a financial advisor. Bull Headed Bear and its authors will not be liable for any losses or damages from the information here or its website.
DISCLOSURE:
I/we have open long positions in GOOGL. We do not intend on altering this position in the coming weeks.
GOOGL
