this analyse refers to traders who are focused on mid- and longterm trades.
In my opinion gold now is going to complete an Elliottwave correction pattern, which is also a base where gold will start to new highs. The sentiment is worse than at the end of 2015. After that in 2016, gold started a bullrun from 1.046 USD to 1.375 USD. The dates show us, that the so called “dump money” is spending gold with full hands while the so called “smart money” is gathering it historically cheap. We should not ignore that!
Where are we standing?
In December 2015 we saw a corrective wave 4 ending at 1.046 USD (it lasts form September 2011 to December 2015). After that, gold started a bullrun to 1.375 USD (wave 1 of final wave 5), followed by a corrective wave 2, which ended at the end of 2016 (1.122 USD). Since the beginning of 2017 gold builts a second 1-2 basic impulsive wave structure, which took much longer than I thought. To the end of December 2017 to be precise. But that was just the first corrective wave a, followed by wave b at 1.366 USD. And now we are in the final corrective wave c of 2 (purple in brackets).
What I want to say is: it is time to prepare for a very long longtrade. I think that gold will turn in the blue box placed in the chart above. The goal of the final wave 5 could easily be between 2.000 USD and 3.000 USD. When it comes to a crash in the 20ies and/or a war, much higher. A crash trough all important indices in the 20ies is not that unlikely by the way.
We will find further possibilities to place orders, but we should already use this chance to get a foot in the door earlier than most of the investors out there.
Please leave a comment or a message, if you have any questions.
what an epic sell-off yesterday at nearly every single market! So now the sentiment is worse than the last few years. A perfect try for a longtrade, I think.
But be careful, if silver doesn't rise impulsive and fails at on of these price levels, we will see courses around 1.000$ and even less: 1.205$, 1.236$ and then minimum above1.260$. These are key-levels.
1. stop: 1.136$
I will post more updates in due time.
absolutely unsafe at the moment, so...
1. stop: 1.136$
2. stop: 1.172$
It's possible that we will see a wave 4 (up) and then a final sell of (wave 5 of c of c of 2). We will see...
it’s absolutely not sure if we are in a stable uptrend already, so I decided to leave my stop at 1,172$ to be safe. It is possible that we will see only a wave 4. Now it is very important to get through 1,205$ - the first wall to hit. But that does not mean anything, because the most important sore points are 1,236$, 1,282$ and finally 1,366$. The problem is, that wave 4 could easily reach 1,282$ technically.
So, we have to decide carefully where to set stops.
I have decided to adjust my wave count and my blue trading box to get the eventual wave 5 enough space to complete on the downside: