GOLD is currently trading in a symmetrical triangle and might be poised to breakout in mid to late 2022 according to the end of the triangle - which coincides with the projected rate hikes at the Fed. Amid growing geopolitical uncertainty (see: Russia threatening to invade Ukraine, China mobilizing troops on the border of Taiwan), a great amount of economic uncertainty (inflation hitting 52 year highs and the uncertainty of the Fed's control over it, asset price bubble according to some indicators such as the Buffett indicator, housing bubbles across the world, general mania and speculation with crypto, EVs (Lucid, Rivian) and "meme" stocks, collateralized loan obligations sales hitting an annual record this year, oil prices surging to record levels akin to the 1970s, Evergrande's impending bankruptcy, Coronavirus cases hitting records in Europe with additional lockdowns and measures being put in place, global supply chain issues), I find it hard to believe gold will stay at this level for very long. In all honesty, all these events seem like a timebomb and we are just waiting for a black swan event for this to all topple over. I guess we shall see what the future holds.
Trade active:
Update: 2 months later this chart still holds strong. Seems like this chart may hold the answer as to when we might possibly see a crash or depression occur, seemingly around the start of H2 2022. We are currently in a state of historic valuations and mania and speculation is absolutely everywhere. Nearly everything I mentioned in the comment above is still unfolding:
- China and Taiwan conflict
- Russia and Ukraine conflict (so far the risk of war seems to be increasing by the day)
- Inflation and the Federal Reserve being behind the curve on it
- Crypto speculation (admittedly this has died down a little due to the price of Bitcoin nearly going down 50% in less than a month, but it is still wildly present)
- Evergrande's bankruptcy has started to ripple across the market. The CCP is currently trying to deal with it, but the scale of it is still unknown. China's Q4 GDP has slowed down and the bonds of Country Garden, the biggest property developer in China, have been plunging.
- The EV bubble is starting to show weaknesses. Tesla, Rivian and Lucid are all down over 25% in the last month
- Oil prices are back to being very elevated
I will keep this chart updated as needed
- China and Taiwan conflict
- Russia and Ukraine conflict (so far the risk of war seems to be increasing by the day)
- Inflation and the Federal Reserve being behind the curve on it
- Crypto speculation (admittedly this has died down a little due to the price of Bitcoin nearly going down 50% in less than a month, but it is still wildly present)
- Evergrande's bankruptcy has started to ripple across the market. The CCP is currently trying to deal with it, but the scale of it is still unknown. China's Q4 GDP has slowed down and the bonds of Country Garden, the biggest property developer in China, have been plunging.
- The EV bubble is starting to show weaknesses. Tesla, Rivian and Lucid are all down over 25% in the last month
- Oil prices are back to being very elevated
I will keep this chart updated as needed
Trade closed manually:
WIth the fed meeting in a month and heightened geopolitical tensions, I have decided to exit my position in gold today as the price hit the top of the channel (and even went above it).