$GME - Turned Bullish, but what about the rest of the market?

GME is looking super good today. Shorts increased their positions by another $25mil which is extremely bullish for GME in terms of making the price increase/run or whatever you want to call it. It looks like the run is happening after all.
You need to however take the rest of the market in consideration before getting too happy.

For the past few cycles, GME has done it's thing into a bearish market. One example was when CPI/FOMC was on the exact same day as a run (twice actually) and the run got crushed. Another example was when AMC gave out it's dividend 1 day before the GME run and 1 day after the GME run was the TSLA split. There were plenty more instances where GME just did it's run into a dying market.

EOD Data
-Looking at the EOD data for GME, as i said things are looking super bullish. A run is going to happen for sure.
-Looking at the rest of the market, i'm not sure what's about to happen e.g i can't tell. If the rest of the market does not die starting tomorrow, the run should be a good one and would touch in my opinion $40 for GME. If the rest of the market starts dying tomorrow onwards, i think GME could make a new low at $17.xx.

Positions: SPY Puts, AMD Puts, Coca Cola Puts.
I could've kept my GME calls but i'm not feeling this one even if the GME data is clearly saying things are bullish. This means #1, i'm a week early and #2 you're all about to get rich. So, good luck. I really hope GME doesn't get pumped whilst the market is dying for whatever random sudden news comes out tomorrow...


TLDR:
-Data says GME go up for sure.
-I'm not feeling it, so i think it's going to $17.xx

Data is almost always right, i'm alost always wrong. Cheers.

Comment:

-The current setup for the entire market is the same as August 22 and March 18.
-The short levels for SPY/TQQQ/QQQ are the highest they've been since March 18.

-Short levels for SPY/TQQQ/QQQ have gone parabolic in the same way they did on March 18 and Aug 22 indicating that the shorts are loading up BIG time for another correction leg down.

-Short levels for GME/AMC/The Basket have increased only slightly over the past few days. The short levels have NOT gone parabolic like the rest of the market and instead indicate little interest in going short on these stocks.

-The short levels for these stocks are the same as May 28 and July 28.

This all feels both like a March 23 2022 kind of thing for GME but with the rest of the market ready to dunk at lower levels ($375 - $365). This would mute any kind of GME run e.g covering into a bear market.

The GME borrow rate should stop climbing by the 28'th of December where settlement/clearing of options at the OCC/NSCC ends until the next cycle. Until then, the borrow rate will continue to rise as the OCC/NSCC itself borrows from lenders to clear, net and settle GME monthly/quarterly options.

During this time price increases in GME can occur and it's one of the few windows where price improvement can occur but will likely fail due to the rest of the market tanking with extremely good timing.

TLDR: Data say GME go up, but market go down, so GME actually go down unless GME actually go up.

Comment:

Found the rug dated TODAY 22 Dec:
-AMC entertainment holdings announces $110 Mil Equity raise from converting APE (5% AMC Value) into AMC (95% AMC value) as a "reverse stock split".

No run. Only rug apparently. Just like in Aug... done even more perfectly timed. In Aug, the did it on what would be this week's Monday. This time they did it on Wednesday which is the best timing if you wanted to crush a meme run.

Good Game. Glad i saw through this... Be careful out there.

Comment:

Literally check the first post in this thread. I mentioned AMC's dividend in August being a thing that muted the run.

Today AMC announces a reverse split but really it's just a way to spawn more liquidity, to dillute and to drag down the rest of the meme basket.

My entire port since last night on close... I knew something was off...
imgur.com/vagngS7

Comment:

VIX and UVXY also finally moving up after days of inactivity. Also perfectly timed.
I hope you got puts...

Comment:

Although i see more downside, i can't resist this. We're touching the 200MA on the 1w chart. That's big. Hasn't happened for years.

Dipping my feet in a bit...

Comment:

Got some GME calls at these prices for next year but holding my SPY puts at the same time.

Trade closed: target reached:

I went a bit long at $19.5. Waiting for more dip. Meanwhile holding my SPY puts until i see an opportunity.

Of course i'm at ITM calls and a bit far out. Not doing OTM stuff on GME cause that's how you get burned.

Consider this post closed.