The GER30 is very tricky to analyze these days, so be careful and do your own DD :)
The Ascending triangle has broken out down. Potential target 14200
False break-out are common with triangles, so this break-out is fake or real?
Probably real:
- Trending moves are slowing down (the 3 green rectangles)
- the breakout has been followed by a retest of the bottom trendline of the triangle and rejected.
- RSI is in a bearish channel, near the neutral area (53)
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Analysis INVALIDATION IF the ascending triangle breaks out above the 1600 horizontal trendline, the bullish move might continue toward 14900 in the bullish channel started February 22.
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The Ascending triangle has broken out down. Potential target 14200
False break-out are common with triangles, so this break-out is fake or real?
Probably real:
- Trending moves are slowing down (the 3 green rectangles)
- the breakout has been followed by a retest of the bottom trendline of the triangle and rejected.
- RSI is in a bearish channel, near the neutral area (53)
****
Analysis INVALIDATION IF the ascending triangle breaks out above the 1600 horizontal trendline, the bullish move might continue toward 14900 in the bullish channel started February 22.
****
I keep my short. I use low leverage, I have the time to wait for the GER to drop (probably next week). It cannot rise for ever.
I will create a new idea to show my updated analysis integrating the price moves since the last 2 days.
Elliott waves seem to apply well. We are currently in wave 5. The top might be at 14750 or probable maximum 17900. The daily and 4h RSI start being overbought.
At 14750 level, I will look for a short entry after seeing rejection candles.