My opinion - these days the stalemate in American politics will reject again the healthcare reform . So :
1) dax has already fall as this healthcare bill will not pass .
2) dji has risen like this healthcare bill will pass so when it don't pass then dji will fall .
the fall in dji will be big : already dji has 300pips more compared with dax . but this fall
in dji will drag dax too at least a little more down so dji will have to recuperate even more .
Conclusion. Healthcare bill is delayed after 4 July. So in few days it will be retracted/delayed again ,
so tax reform delayed too , then dji/dax will fall more than 300pips dji and 100pips dax .
But that fall can be huge like 1000pips dji and 700dax .
GER30 Long for a wile - as you know that THEY are doing everything on the brink or on the edge .
so until the last moment the things will go as nothing will come or in the opposite way .
therefore for the moment dji/dax/cac... will go up . :)
1) dax has already fall as this healthcare bill will not pass .
2) dji has risen like this healthcare bill will pass so when it don't pass then dji will fall .
the fall in dji will be big : already dji has 300pips more compared with dax . but this fall
in dji will drag dax too at least a little more down so dji will have to recuperate even more .
Conclusion. Healthcare bill is delayed after 4 July. So in few days it will be retracted/delayed again ,
so tax reform delayed too , then dji/dax will fall more than 300pips dji and 100pips dax .
But that fall can be huge like 1000pips dji and 700dax .
GER30 Long for a wile - as you know that THEY are doing everything on the brink or on the edge .
so until the last moment the things will go as nothing will come or in the opposite way .
therefore for the moment dji/dax/cac... will go up . :)
Comment:
After 4 July I will wait news on healthcare bill, looking to go Short .
Comment:
As expected market is standing still until after 4 July . Yet dax has risen ~30pips and dow ~50pips.
Trade closed: stop reached:
exit on break even
Trade closed: target reached:
hahah - tp1 reached if not reset stop loss on break even ... :(
Trade closed: stop reached:
I'm out on earlier break even ... :(
Order cancelled:
dow30 or dji is unbelievable it has gone up 200pips today , and that alone with no similar move in cac/dax... !
moved to short dji but until now some losses .
moved to short dji but until now some losses .
Trade closed manually:
I've been so sure that dji is too high that I was all in so earned 25% in that stroke .
Trade active:
now long again for at least 50pips sl 20pips
Comment:
cause fall back again at 12407 now long again tp 14463 sl 12395 (trailing sl) .
sl already moved to break even as I wrote this .
sl already moved to break even as I wrote this .
Trade closed: target reached:
now I'm short cause of the down spike in oil after Putin comment (no more additional cut in oil production) .
sl already moved to break even as I wrote this . use tight sl in this jumping around market , back and forth , back and forth . :)
sl already moved to break even as I wrote this . use tight sl in this jumping around market , back and forth , back and forth . :)
Trade active:
now I'm short cause of the down spike in oil after Putin comment (no more additional cut in oil production) . tp 12390 (3 July minimum) trailing sl 14pips .
sl already moved to small profit as I wrote this . use tight and trailing sl in this
jumping around market , back and forth , back and forth . :)
sl already moved to small profit as I wrote this . use tight and trailing sl in this
jumping around market , back and forth , back and forth . :)
Trade closed: stop reached:
closed w small profit
Comment:
Hmm.. it seams that either dax will go up or dji down to close the gap between them .
That gap is around 250pips from last 2 weeks till now on top of an older gap of another 200pips (from april to july) .
Take account that (on average over long period) both are correlated : direct with oil and inverse with gold .
Also eurusd is correlated : inverse with oil and direct with gold . (vice versa)
So, dax and dji are inverse correlated with eurusd too .
But again on average and on big period . On small period those can move synchronous or not .
Yet oil has gone down a lot today so I'm bearish especially for dji since from 20June2017 : dax has already gone down and dji up .
but that seams to be related w healcare bill and tax reform in us (so dji up , but why only dji and dax not) .
My opinion : us politics seams to be in stalemate so those reform will not come this year (at least) .
But market can move like a fly in a windshield or even worse moving in the opposite way even after hitting the wall .
Yet I can't think like a Martian cause I don't know how he think . So from the above reasons I'm looking to short dji .
That gap is around 250pips from last 2 weeks till now on top of an older gap of another 200pips (from april to july) .
Take account that (on average over long period) both are correlated : direct with oil and inverse with gold .
Also eurusd is correlated : inverse with oil and direct with gold . (vice versa)
So, dax and dji are inverse correlated with eurusd too .
But again on average and on big period . On small period those can move synchronous or not .
Yet oil has gone down a lot today so I'm bearish especially for dji since from 20June2017 : dax has already gone down and dji up .
but that seams to be related w healcare bill and tax reform in us (so dji up , but why only dji and dax not) .
My opinion : us politics seams to be in stalemate so those reform will not come this year (at least) .
But market can move like a fly in a windshield or even worse moving in the opposite way even after hitting the wall .
Yet I can't think like a Martian cause I don't know how he think . So from the above reasons I'm looking to short dji .