On the GBP/ CHF (Pound/ Swiss Franc) we have a bullish Butterfly. Three of the 5 major points are major swing points either 27 or 88 candle swings. This pattern might not be valid as i am not supposted to chart it until PA starts trading past the B-Point. what we want to see is the GBP weaken at first so PA will get into the PRZ the stregthen to bounce out.... but here is what we have on the COT Report.
As i have said on my previous analysis on the COT this is my first time trying to incoperate the COT into my trading. Even though techinicals are great there is also a Fundamental side to trading that i want to tap into. being a well rounded trader is the goal. As it is trading is a traders personal business! So, as it stands the following are the COT Reports for the respected pairs... All COT information is pulled from tradingster.com... i also try to make it reader friendly when i type it up so when i publish it i dont know what it looks like so sorry if it looks bad when its published.
---------------------------------------------------POUND STERLING COT REPORT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non.-Reportable
Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short
35,810 54,799 5,398 120,800 87,501 162,008 147,698 17,726 32,036
Changes (Change In Open Interest: +13,166 )
+4,285 +9,586 -687 +8,317 +3,164 +11,915 +12,063 +1,251 +1,103
Percent of Open Interest for Each Category of Traders
19.9% 30.5% 3.0% 67.2% 48.7% 90.1% 82.2% 9.9% 17.8%
(CONTRACTS OF GBP 62,500) Open Interest: 179,734
---------------------------------------------------Swiss Franc COT REPORT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non-Reportable
Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short
13,678 4,950 19 14,422 20,534 28,119 25,503 10,627 13,243
Changes (Change In Open Interest: -1,723 )
+1,054 -1,026 +6 -2,371. -1,904. -1,311 -2,924 -412 +1,201
Percent of Open Interest for Each Category of Traders
35.3% 12.8% 0.0% 37.2% 53.0% 72.6% 65.8% 27.4% 34.2%
(CONTRACTS OF CHF 125,000) Open Interest: 38,746
Okay here is what we have fundamentally... we have some serious shorting going on in the Non-Commercial Side (Hedge Funds or other parties that trade currency pairs for profit) for the pound. but what is interesting is that almost 10K orders are flooding the short side we have the Commercial side doubling thier long positions against the Non-Commercials while adding quite a bit of orders to their long side. I am guessing they are expecting the Pound to weaken so theyre hedging their risk to protect against that. what is also interesting is that the long side is adding 11k orders to the long side while also adding 12k orders to the short side in total. I do expect PA to drop down into the PRZ of the Pattern before all the Commercial orders are hit to bring PA out of the PRZ.
What we see on the Swissie some slow moving pieces. This is not surprising as the Swiss Franc is considered a reserve currency (safe Haven when volatility is high and sentiment is unknown) what we do have is almost a 3:1 long:short ratio with 1k orders being added to the long side and 1k orders being taken off the short side (adding to more room for upward movement) conversly we have the Commercial side at 20k short offsetting the risk of the non-commercial longs while taking off 23xx off the long side and taking off 19xx off the short side. this is going to leave more room for the non-commercial side to play around more with the pair as the commercial did not add any to thier side. These two reports support the pattern and direction of the pattern. Due to the lack of players in the Swiss the pair might not move and if it does move it will be becasue of the players in the pound moving Price.!
#RISKFREEORBUST
GBPCHF
As i have said on my previous analysis on the COT this is my first time trying to incoperate the COT into my trading. Even though techinicals are great there is also a Fundamental side to trading that i want to tap into. being a well rounded trader is the goal. As it is trading is a traders personal business! So, as it stands the following are the COT Reports for the respected pairs... All COT information is pulled from tradingster.com... i also try to make it reader friendly when i type it up so when i publish it i dont know what it looks like so sorry if it looks bad when its published.
---------------------------------------------------POUND STERLING COT REPORT ---------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non.-Reportable
Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short
35,810 54,799 5,398 120,800 87,501 162,008 147,698 17,726 32,036
Changes (Change In Open Interest: +13,166 )
+4,285 +9,586 -687 +8,317 +3,164 +11,915 +12,063 +1,251 +1,103
Percent of Open Interest for Each Category of Traders
19.9% 30.5% 3.0% 67.2% 48.7% 90.1% 82.2% 9.9% 17.8%
(CONTRACTS OF GBP 62,500) Open Interest: 179,734
---------------------------------------------------Swiss Franc COT REPORT ----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Non-Commercial Commercial Total Non-Reportable
Long Short Spreads Long Short Long Short Long Short
13,678 4,950 19 14,422 20,534 28,119 25,503 10,627 13,243
Changes (Change In Open Interest: -1,723 )
+1,054 -1,026 +6 -2,371. -1,904. -1,311 -2,924 -412 +1,201
Percent of Open Interest for Each Category of Traders
35.3% 12.8% 0.0% 37.2% 53.0% 72.6% 65.8% 27.4% 34.2%
(CONTRACTS OF CHF 125,000) Open Interest: 38,746
Okay here is what we have fundamentally... we have some serious shorting going on in the Non-Commercial Side (Hedge Funds or other parties that trade currency pairs for profit) for the pound. but what is interesting is that almost 10K orders are flooding the short side we have the Commercial side doubling thier long positions against the Non-Commercials while adding quite a bit of orders to their long side. I am guessing they are expecting the Pound to weaken so theyre hedging their risk to protect against that. what is also interesting is that the long side is adding 11k orders to the long side while also adding 12k orders to the short side in total. I do expect PA to drop down into the PRZ of the Pattern before all the Commercial orders are hit to bring PA out of the PRZ.
What we see on the Swissie some slow moving pieces. This is not surprising as the Swiss Franc is considered a reserve currency (safe Haven when volatility is high and sentiment is unknown) what we do have is almost a 3:1 long:short ratio with 1k orders being added to the long side and 1k orders being taken off the short side (adding to more room for upward movement) conversly we have the Commercial side at 20k short offsetting the risk of the non-commercial longs while taking off 23xx off the long side and taking off 19xx off the short side. this is going to leave more room for the non-commercial side to play around more with the pair as the commercial did not add any to thier side. These two reports support the pattern and direction of the pattern. Due to the lack of players in the Swiss the pair might not move and if it does move it will be becasue of the players in the pound moving Price.!
#RISKFREEORBUST
GBPCHF