Short GBPCHF Based on 4H + 1D Charts + Fundamentals

Firstly: As a Londoner myself, it is deeply distressing to know of the recent terror attacks at London Bridge + Borough Market. My heart goes out to all those that have lost their lives to cowardly acts of terrorism that try to cause separation within our nation and everywhere around the world.

Technicals:
On the 10th of May 2017 price reached 1.30309 forming a double-top, which last touched on 6th of September 2016.
1D chart shows a strong downtrend, making lower highs since 11th of May.
We have a major Support = Resistance at 1.21607
4H chart shows an EMA crossover whereby the 50ema crossed below the 200ema (Death Cross) pushing prices down further.
More recently from 30th of May 2017 price has been ranging, yet continuing to make lower highs and lower lows as we see Bollinger bands constricting and gearing up to break out, more likely to the lower side again.

Fundamentals:
GBP has had a rough ride this year. Between David Cameron's resignation and the snap elections on 8th of June, we have seen great uncertainty. The recent rise in terror attacks across the UK has greatly affected tourism, something the UK economy does rely on heavily. Separate polls for the snap election are painting mixed pictures, causing fluctuations for major GBP pairs, however, I strongly believe Conservatives are losing seats with their new budget. The UK is looking towards Labour to lead the way once again and I expect this will cause a continuing decline for the near future.

The Swiss Franc (CHF), a noted safe-haven currency, continues to get stronger. Rising geopolitical tensions between the US and Russia have seen the Swiss Franc making strong gains, benefitting from an increased demand for safe-haven assets. If the deadlock over the Syrian conflict continues then the Franc could remain on a bullish trend, in spite of the threat of market intervention from the Swiss National Bank (SNB).

A 3.9 percent jump in exports in the three months through March helped push economic growth to 0.3 percent. While that fell short of the 0.5 percent forecast in a Bloomberg survey, it’s still the strongest performance in three-quarters.

Place your stop at 1.25413 and we leave TP - We could reach 1.21607 however, there are a few support levels we must break through to get there and with the elections nearing closer, we must take this trade with caution.

This research is for informational purposes and should not be construed as personal advice. Trading any financial market involves risk. Trading on leverage involves risk of losses greater than deposits.


Please comment below and Like if you agree with my analysis.

Trade active:

Price is now oversold and we have downside divergence. RSI shows there is room for some more upside movement, however it is not for sure and therefore this would be my ideal entry for this short.

GL and remember to trade safe. Money Management !

Comment:

Move SL to Break Even and continue trade.

Trade closed manually

Comment:

For those of you who did not move your SL to Break Even like I did, this trade would still be active for you guys with plenty in the money :)