$GBPCAD Eyes Bearish Targets | $GBP $CAD #forex
Friends,
While the predictive/forecasting model is posting an early bearish market reversal signal, there are also fundamental and technical reasons to consider a potential bearish downturn in this $GBPCAD pair
FUNDAMENTALS:
Central bank decision regarding UK is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. This implies that $GBP won't gain rally without this fundamental boost. In contrast, $CAD's economic numbers have shown improvement in the area of employment, despite free-falling prices in Oil and Gold, which are two important variables in its export-dependent economic equation.
See recent posting on Oil and Gold where predictive analysis is considering an interim relief in these commodities bearish pricing - See "Link To related ideas" below.
TECHNICALS:
- GEOMETRY: EXPANDING TRIANGLE
This $GBPCAD pair is currently resolving an expanding triangle. However, looking into the internal wave count (a-b-c), the recent price action seems to lack a significant anatomical wave-c part.
For this reason, I have highlighted 1.81886 as a top-most structural level I would consider attainable for the fianl wave-c to occur - Although this is not a requirement, I would remain open to this potential necessity in terms of pure geometric form and development.
I also defined a lower value at 1.78916 as a threshold from which further bearish contemplation becomes feasible. More conservative traders might also consider the lower structural level defined by Point-D of the Expanding Triangle as well.
Notice that Point-E remains ghosted for the time being, on the expectation that further upside is possible. From an Elliott Wave Principle, and as mentioned above, an internal 3-wave count via a-b-c- points remains unclear as far as this Point-E. Also, looking at the general form of prior such internal counts in terms of amplitude and spread, I am not certain that Point-E is defined just yet.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
From a predictive/forecasting analytical standpoint, There are several levels to consider, namely:
1 - 1.84168, defined above current position as a significant overhead resistance. If indeed Point-E were to resolve at a higher level, I would expect that such level would occur up to, but not higher than this 1.84168 value.
2 - 1.84262-to-1.85396 range, defined as a significant bearish entrenchment. Regardless of above Elliott Wave Point-E definition and geometry, this level is a stand-alone bearish bastion, offering the strongest bearish repulsive forces possible. This also marks a level where if price did indeed break across and close across it, then further bearish delusions should be replaced by a neutral to bullish reality mindset.
3 - Numerical targets (offering potential retracement levels in the 0.382-to-0.618 Fibonacci range) have also been defined by predictive/forecasting model as;
a -- TG-1 - 1.75891 - 11 NOV 2014
and
b -- TG-2 - 1.73226 - 11 NOV 2014
whereas a nominal target (offering reversal potentials) has been defined as:
-- TG-Lo - 1.70855 - 11 NOV 2014.
OVERALL:
A set of fundamental and technical, as well as proprietary signals, is weighing down on the $GBPCAD pair. Given trigger levels, and the unfolding of economic/fundamental data affecting these respective major currencies, a precautionary watch-and-wait stance is advised at this point, although the net directional bias favors the ursine breed so far - Despite these hesitant reasons, I am posting TradingView's directional indicator as "Short".
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive/Forecasting Analysis
Denver, Colorado - USA
----------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
----------
While the predictive/forecasting model is posting an early bearish market reversal signal, there are also fundamental and technical reasons to consider a potential bearish downturn in this $GBPCAD pair
FUNDAMENTALS:
Central bank decision regarding UK is expected to maintain interest rates unchanged. This implies that $GBP won't gain rally without this fundamental boost. In contrast, $CAD's economic numbers have shown improvement in the area of employment, despite free-falling prices in Oil and Gold, which are two important variables in its export-dependent economic equation.
See recent posting on Oil and Gold where predictive analysis is considering an interim relief in these commodities bearish pricing - See "Link To related ideas" below.
TECHNICALS:
- GEOMETRY: EXPANDING TRIANGLE
This $GBPCAD pair is currently resolving an expanding triangle. However, looking into the internal wave count (a-b-c), the recent price action seems to lack a significant anatomical wave-c part.
For this reason, I have highlighted 1.81886 as a top-most structural level I would consider attainable for the fianl wave-c to occur - Although this is not a requirement, I would remain open to this potential necessity in terms of pure geometric form and development.
I also defined a lower value at 1.78916 as a threshold from which further bearish contemplation becomes feasible. More conservative traders might also consider the lower structural level defined by Point-D of the Expanding Triangle as well.
Notice that Point-E remains ghosted for the time being, on the expectation that further upside is possible. From an Elliott Wave Principle, and as mentioned above, an internal 3-wave count via a-b-c- points remains unclear as far as this Point-E. Also, looking at the general form of prior such internal counts in terms of amplitude and spread, I am not certain that Point-E is defined just yet.
PREDICTIVE/FORECASTING MODEL:
From a predictive/forecasting analytical standpoint, There are several levels to consider, namely:
1 - 1.84168, defined above current position as a significant overhead resistance. If indeed Point-E were to resolve at a higher level, I would expect that such level would occur up to, but not higher than this 1.84168 value.
2 - 1.84262-to-1.85396 range, defined as a significant bearish entrenchment. Regardless of above Elliott Wave Point-E definition and geometry, this level is a stand-alone bearish bastion, offering the strongest bearish repulsive forces possible. This also marks a level where if price did indeed break across and close across it, then further bearish delusions should be replaced by a neutral to bullish reality mindset.
3 - Numerical targets (offering potential retracement levels in the 0.382-to-0.618 Fibonacci range) have also been defined by predictive/forecasting model as;
a -- TG-1 - 1.75891 - 11 NOV 2014
and
b -- TG-2 - 1.73226 - 11 NOV 2014
whereas a nominal target (offering reversal potentials) has been defined as:
-- TG-Lo - 1.70855 - 11 NOV 2014.
OVERALL:
A set of fundamental and technical, as well as proprietary signals, is weighing down on the $GBPCAD pair. Given trigger levels, and the unfolding of economic/fundamental data affecting these respective major currencies, a precautionary watch-and-wait stance is advised at this point, although the net directional bias favors the ursine breed so far - Despite these hesitant reasons, I am posting TradingView's directional indicator as "Short".
Cheers,
David Alcindor
Predictive/Forecasting Analysis
Denver, Colorado - USA
----------
Twitter: @4xForecaster
----------
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