finitemonk

S&P & the EuroStoxx Wave "Problem"

FX:EUSTX50   Euro Stoxx 50 Index
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As given: stock markets tend to move synchronously & any downward adjustment is likely to occur together.

One labelling solution as here on EuroStoxx is possible without compromising rules of overlap, wave 3 longest etc. makes wave 4 as a giant months long expanded flat (3-3-5). Not that it was much of a 'correction', it did break the support line. Most indices, 3 US majors: DJ30, Nas, S&P (lightly in the background here), FTSE, Nikkei etc. after end of August correction, all did a 'hockey stick' recovery. All are technically 'in' with an all time or multiyear highs, apart from Euro continent indices, Eurostoxx50, Dax, Ibex etc. (& the Nikkei) which means they either have a failed wave 5 (assuming true motive), or they have a little way to go to a significant top.

The non-appearance of divergence in the RSI also supports this 'high yet to come'. All prior show at least some divergence, e.g recent top of (b). And for a (b) to be that high, almost always, to appropriate timescale, exceeded thereafter. Lets see how the ECB liquidity injection goes (though it is doubted as to whether this is 'real')

And all that, & the tendency to synchronous movement gives me slight caution about calling a top in the US Majors. To be honest, looking over the weekend, in? Could very well be. US & other indices not perfectly together in terms of labels & waves. But, y'know ... should the enthusiasm cross the pond ...
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