EURUSD - When a trend can't accelerate

FX:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
In my last post about EURUSD I expected this push up, with the idea of looking for new short entry signals between 1,3675 - 1,3750. However the technical picture has changed a bit, giving me the feeling that probably EURUSD still won't be the best trending pair, but rather the one which is very difficult to read and trade on a trend following basis.

Daily: The bearish momentum is almost totally lost by now, Price action is in bullish counter trend now. (this has also been clearly visible on the 4 Hrs time frame). Price is still below the Kumo, but much above Tenkan Sen and Kijun Sen lines now. Tenkan/Kijun made a weak bullish cross. DMI is about to cross bullish , but here I expect rather a zig-zag in the indicator, than a clear buy signal. ADX has been dropping, so the previous bearish trend is totally out of steam. MACD and Slow Stoch is bullish , with Stochastic reaching overbought level.
The Chikou Span is also interesting, it has crossed above price candles.

Since we have reached first resistance, we may see some pull back down to 1,3630-1,3640, but bears would need a lot more agressive price action to get back in power. The downtrend can accelerate only if price quickly breaks below 1,3600 again. Otherwise it may soo enter the Kumo Cloud, which again will be a bouring land, with possible range trading.

Anyway, the first level where I think risk-reward is good, and where I would try a short is 1,3730-1,3750. Here at mom I would not pull the short trigger, maybe I just start reducing the counter longs that I have.


I was long since 18th June on the base of the indicators but staying on the sidelines since yesterday when I took the profit. I also expect a downward correction but looking to buy back because of the weekly picture. It looks sideward since February but one should not forget the intact uptrend since summer 2012. So new rises are always more probable.
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