EUR Still long, but pattern rule now in effect

Looking at the overall picture we have some show of where sellers started to group in to try and make the last drive from this level, and since we have already pushed further down below the 1.091 level that was quite respected, I'm thinking more sellers will continue to try and push it down and make a downtrend.

The pattern rule part:

Almost every single time I see this "V" pattern with EURUSD it will almost come down 33% of the pattern, then finally go. Not sure why it traveled so far up this time, but, we are definitely coming back to it, as usual for pair behavior.

What's going on near the supply zone:

Think of the V as filled orders, More filled at the top, less on the bottom, so more unfilled orders at the bottom.

I have a few ovals to represent where I think most unfilled orders remain. You can always see who is "in the market" but it's the one's waiting it out who get you. The very bottom is where most orders should still remain, waiting to fill. We do have a demand zone, but it could be broken with a tail and then rocket back up from the bottom orders left. Most likely entry is around the demand zone, and a stop below the v at about 1.072 would be a likely stop for an attempt long in this area.

Because of the very High R rate, I will set alerts and wait for the price to enter the 1.084 zone, and watch until the price comes back above the 1.084 before entering, then stop at 1.072 and target of 1.1015, the next major level. Still net positive 40 pips on the idea, so I want to try and get some confirmation before entry, and not give back what I have already gained to this point. A stop run then rush up would be a great signal as well, and could potentially dip below the V as by that point sellers should have some serious confidence again.

Using dotted paths to show likely expectations of how it may move back up and out.

Comment:

Coming right along as expected so far, but not going to take any longer term trades at the moment with it. May not be updating as much as it travels along, as I have been drilling a new scalping strategy all week, and tonight tried it live. It's almost ready, and very simple to use. The trades are very fast, so they may not ever make it on here. I will be taking longer trades though still, but applying this new strategy for entry on any future long term trades, so those may open and close a few times getting started, but eventually will stick and go with a confirmed entry and very low risk on entry for really high R return.

Despite that, I would still be a lot more comfortable with this idea and set up to have at least one big pinbar on the 15-30 minute time frame. That along with the rest of the story will be more than enough to be comfortable no matter where it goes on the way to 1.101, maybe higher as I will trail stop this and look for the higher target to carry into or re enter for.

Fairly certain it will make it maybe even higher now. I also think 1.19 may very well come about before the end of the month possibly because of how strong the V pattern is. Very deep and loaded up right at the beginning of the month, so the "Don't trade Monday" may not be that common of a rule 🤷‍♂️ There is probably far more waiting there than originally thought, the turnaround will tell us though

Comment:

Note about further price targets:

All of the major key levels above are marked out on the chart up to and beyond 1.192, for future reference, but they will also appear in future ideas. There aren't many key lower levels, and as we move down after this overall move later, I will add those too

Comment:

That escalated quickly. Getting near the area of interest

Comment:

I would bet the seller's are very confident now, going to make sure we reject out of the lower areas, will probably head to the lower zone before turning around

Comment:

1.0816 might be the spot, not getting strong reaction from here. It "moving up" but that is not convincing to me

Comment:

we have a short trend line from the breakout point and first lower high above. It will probably use this line to turn back further. Most likely 1.0815-1.082 is where it will stop and make the turn back up I'm thinking right now

Trade active:

Taking a market entry here, getting some signs of the demand zone being effective. Hedge stopping at 1.0795

Comment:

Lots of gap opens on the 1 minute, entry is spread placed at 1.0841, entry was taken on the first gap up, there are three more gaps above my position, so any retracement should be met with heavy support

Comment:

Hedge removed and stop set for risk free 4 pips ahead

Comment:

Stop moved to 1.0874 to lock some profits and let it keep going

Comment:

Moving stop again to 1.0889, incase it drops off before trying for more

Comment:

Stronger upwards momentum coing in, tighten the stop to 1.0898 (flip the 8 and 9 from before)

Comment:

Lot of profit in this treade, 1.0913 new stop. It has to retrace eventually, so staying tighter for when it does, then re-enter. Back over the 100 pip net mark now through the course of the beginning of the idea flow

Comment:

If the 1.0915 top side minor level breaks, that makes a double top and we may be seeing some retrace action

Comment:

It will also break the trend line and trigger some sellers to go in, plus other traders probably trailed stop, so it could dip a bit and then continue. 1.101 still a target but hanging on to gains on the way

Trade closed: stop reached:

Profit stop reached, gain of 72 pips, for a net total flow gain of 112, looking for a lower re-entry, and think it may be a little bit below around 1.088 or so. This was a strong sell off level before and there's still plenty of open orders for buying below. May be a dip and run through tomorrow

Comment:

*unfilled orders below, open orders probably getting closed now 😂 they want to keep profits like I do 🐒

Comment:

FOMC, inflation report, ppi, all big events coming so price may stall and have to look for entry close to news times using boundaries as markers, I'll make a new look with updates in consideration for possible entry levels.