Following the successful retest of long-term support around 1.1300, we saw, and are seeing continue, a sizeable rebound with price action breaking out to the upside of the descending trend channel that has been in play since 11th October. At the time of writing, we've seen the upper bound of this trend channel turn from resistance to support, around the 1.1373 level. I'll be keeping an eye on this trend line for dynamic support should the pair reverse from any of the marked resistance levels.
Fundamentally, today brought news of positive Brexit talks regarding financial services between the EU and the UK post-Brexit. At a high level, the agreement will allow UK firms to retain access to the EU markets, so long as UK financial policy remains somewhat instep with the EU's following Brexit. Whilst this is primarily bullish for GBP, it brings a sense of collaboration between the two parties and seems a mutually beneficial agreement for both sides. The situation in Italy is still yet to be resolved, contributing to a sense of uneasiness in the market.
I've outlined some conservative resistance levels in the above chart, at 1.1432, 1.1535 and 1.1600, based on previous levels seen in EURUSD should the bullish run continue. The dotted lines represent the now-broken descending trend channel, and the solid downward trend is a longer-term trend line which I will be monitoring for potential confluence with the 1.1432 resistance level over the next few candles. I'm not currently trading this pair, at this stage I am just monitoring price action following the reversal from major support.
Always interested to hear others' ideas and feedback as I'm reasonably new to trading, so let me know what you think!
Fundamentally, today brought news of positive Brexit talks regarding financial services between the EU and the UK post-Brexit. At a high level, the agreement will allow UK firms to retain access to the EU markets, so long as UK financial policy remains somewhat instep with the EU's following Brexit. Whilst this is primarily bullish for GBP, it brings a sense of collaboration between the two parties and seems a mutually beneficial agreement for both sides. The situation in Italy is still yet to be resolved, contributing to a sense of uneasiness in the market.
I've outlined some conservative resistance levels in the above chart, at 1.1432, 1.1535 and 1.1600, based on previous levels seen in EURUSD should the bullish run continue. The dotted lines represent the now-broken descending trend channel, and the solid downward trend is a longer-term trend line which I will be monitoring for potential confluence with the 1.1432 resistance level over the next few candles. I'm not currently trading this pair, at this stage I am just monitoring price action following the reversal from major support.
Always interested to hear others' ideas and feedback as I'm reasonably new to trading, so let me know what you think!
Comment:
Price has breached the first resistance level of 1.1432 on the above chart. Looking for a closure above 1.1432 on the 4H timeframe to indicate further bullish action. Following a successful close I will be watching for trend line resistance on the downward trend line in blue, which if broken opens up a bullish run towards 1.1535.
Comment:
Observed that price found resistance at the 4H 100EMA (dark red line) on the previous candle, though the current candle has spiked above it. The 100EMA is something I'll keep an eye on to see whether price respects these levels for dynamic resistance/support.
Comment:
Price currently finding resistance at descending trend line. Will be interesting to see how this plays out. If bulls are not able to push through and 1.1432 is retested as support, we could see a small descending triangle form between this level and the trend line.
Comment:
On the 1H chart price has currently broken back through the 1.1432 resistance-turned-support level, a sign that bulls could be running out of steam. Will be watching for the 4H closure beneath 1.1432, and the potential for a bearish engulfing. Potential for a test of 1.1370 if we do see a bearish closure, though it will be good to see how this candle closes before confirming.
Comment:
Following on from the previous update, we saw price close below 1.1432, followed by a test of support around 1.1370, which held. I view this test of 1.1370 as a pullback, and suspect we will see bullish price action continue at the start of next week. If this turns out to be the case then the previously identified levels on the chart will remain my focus.
Comment:
After a couple of tests, price has broken the 1.1432 resistance level. We are currently seeing some resistance at the psychological level of 1.1500, which if broken would see price rise further to the 1.1535 level (resistance 2) marked on the chart
Comment:
Further to the above comment, if 1.1500 holds as resistance, we may see a retest of 1.1432 as support. Despite this I am still bullish on this pair and am optimistic we will break 1.1500 without a retest given the uncertainty following the US midterms
Comment:
Current candle finding resistance at confluent psychological and trend line level of 1.1500. Price finding support nearby at 200EMA. Again, if 1.1500 is broken, we should see a rise to 1.1535. If the 200EMA is broken as support, we may see a retest of 1.1432.
Comment:
Comment:
Price currently finding resistance at 1.1500 psychological level, resulting in a break back below 1.1432 support. Interested to see whether the current 4H closes beneath the 1.1432 resistance as this could give us some indication of where price may go next.
Fundamentally speaking, there is a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting over the next couple of days but no surprises are expected, even in the wake of the Democratic victory in the House.
Fundamentally speaking, there is a Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting over the next couple of days but no surprises are expected, even in the wake of the Democratic victory in the House.