Over the last few months, I have come up with a mathematical system to maintain control of the points that matter with different hedge techniques. Little Late getting the chart made and posted, and been away for a while deep in R&D. Now I trade from the end to the start with reverse engineering, and mathematical balance.... I'll demonstrate
Current set up was structured to go short, and just continue the range but the end of the week had a clean break from the range. Additional positions have been put on at the top for price to come back to break even on position spread, just at the retest area for the range that we've been working in for the last month.
Overall, looking at a long bias, very strong break out Friday clearing the old highs that breached the range before, and looking at the bottoms, there is a gradual build of Long side Pressure. The range is about 90 pips wide, so should the price work back into the area, I will have to monitor the E 1 point to see if it looks to hold, otherwise I'll wait for E2 to cut the sell hedge I'll have below the target for the shorts at S1.
An equal Buy Stop order is in place, and it has 2 use cases, one now, one later.
Should it get hit as is, no problem, still closing the sells around the key area around the breakout support and resistance, and will add in 0.04 lots at that level. Then Hold and trail with sell stop up past breakeven for an upwards push to the next level at the top of the path arrow.
Should it not be hit, the sell hedge will continue down until it does get hit, sell targets still will not change, and the position will be holding a surplus, I'll make a decision thne to cut or hold.
Should the target get reached, sells will all close, hedge will be removed, and 0.04 will be entered for long at the major level...
Either way it wants to go, looking for a target/Long Side entry at around 1.062-1.063 on a basic retest entry and then look for the next level pat the high of the breakout for the target on this one, with additional add in on the way to compound in to a max size gradually. A sell hedge will be placed around 1.059, and wait for E 1 or 2 if things don't leave upwards on the demand zone created by the breakout level and just above in the small consolidation just before the big push. Experience tells me 1.062 will happen though, and E 1 could end up being a spring type move to fake short then turn, because the pattern shows a lot of upside strength over the month of October being built in all month.
Currently holding .1 in total short, and only -$19 off the starting balance, with the hedge buy stop making the lockout around -$29 (First attempt being open ended to try and gain back some of the positional spreads).
I almost want the hedge hit (and I would say 90% sure it will be in a liquidity run here soon) so I get my margin back to place at 1.062, but very minimal risk at the current time if I am not able to trail it down any still.
Most Likely outcome is a bounce to return long from the lower 1.06 range, and the trade management will work towards that Idea, as this long term action typically does result in some sort of retest, let's see how much it comes back, but I do believe it will be doing that from the current level of 1.073, or close by as price does seem a little exhausted from the end of the week momentum.
The main reason is just a simple market commonality of "Quick gains given are quickly taken back", then it goes where it was going again usually....
Current set up was structured to go short, and just continue the range but the end of the week had a clean break from the range. Additional positions have been put on at the top for price to come back to break even on position spread, just at the retest area for the range that we've been working in for the last month.
Overall, looking at a long bias, very strong break out Friday clearing the old highs that breached the range before, and looking at the bottoms, there is a gradual build of Long side Pressure. The range is about 90 pips wide, so should the price work back into the area, I will have to monitor the E 1 point to see if it looks to hold, otherwise I'll wait for E2 to cut the sell hedge I'll have below the target for the shorts at S1.
An equal Buy Stop order is in place, and it has 2 use cases, one now, one later.
Should it get hit as is, no problem, still closing the sells around the key area around the breakout support and resistance, and will add in 0.04 lots at that level. Then Hold and trail with sell stop up past breakeven for an upwards push to the next level at the top of the path arrow.
Should it not be hit, the sell hedge will continue down until it does get hit, sell targets still will not change, and the position will be holding a surplus, I'll make a decision thne to cut or hold.
Should the target get reached, sells will all close, hedge will be removed, and 0.04 will be entered for long at the major level...
Either way it wants to go, looking for a target/Long Side entry at around 1.062-1.063 on a basic retest entry and then look for the next level pat the high of the breakout for the target on this one, with additional add in on the way to compound in to a max size gradually. A sell hedge will be placed around 1.059, and wait for E 1 or 2 if things don't leave upwards on the demand zone created by the breakout level and just above in the small consolidation just before the big push. Experience tells me 1.062 will happen though, and E 1 could end up being a spring type move to fake short then turn, because the pattern shows a lot of upside strength over the month of October being built in all month.
Currently holding .1 in total short, and only -$19 off the starting balance, with the hedge buy stop making the lockout around -$29 (First attempt being open ended to try and gain back some of the positional spreads).
I almost want the hedge hit (and I would say 90% sure it will be in a liquidity run here soon) so I get my margin back to place at 1.062, but very minimal risk at the current time if I am not able to trail it down any still.
Most Likely outcome is a bounce to return long from the lower 1.06 range, and the trade management will work towards that Idea, as this long term action typically does result in some sort of retest, let's see how much it comes back, but I do believe it will be doing that from the current level of 1.073, or close by as price does seem a little exhausted from the end of the week momentum.
The main reason is just a simple market commonality of "Quick gains given are quickly taken back", then it goes where it was going again usually....
Trade active:
Hedge order tagged, working position now established with a working range between 1.07485 on the buy and 1.06792 as the sell breakeven price, only 69.3 pips wide. Still looking for 1.063 for the next move or watch for price to break higher, but most likely I'm seeing a retracement over the first half of this week, and I would think it should come down around the tops of the range, which will give a strong position possibility off the retest and significant gain on the sells by passing the breakeven. Still plenty of room to work with only $29 down from the starting trade balance.
Comment:
Price action is showing as downside pressure coming in, and should the top be made, the 38.2/50/61.8 fib levels are lining up, with the 61.8 lining up close to the target at 1.062. Should set up a nice entry and good confluence for the consolidation level marked. Once that level gets reached, I'll add back the 0.04, reaching an optimal size long, and will add about $10 of risk from the original account balance, while still having 0.08 still covered from the sells held now. The buy hedge will become part of the next portion of the trade, so it's not important at the moment. Adding in will bring the breakeven point of the buys down, and keep a tight range so even if the price does not break the highs, the buys will make a nice profit to flip back the other way again if needed. The likely outcome from 1.0622 doe look to be a good target at 1.083 or so, as I don't think the upper resistance level of the most recent highs will be enough to hold the price back.
Comment:
Still holding, price is making a 1-2-3 price action pattern for a stiff downturn, and looking back at the steep push before the last pull upwards to this point is confirming a lot of selling pressure is still in the market, from pullback shorts to buy profit taking on the ones late to the party still hanging on, should see price turn back downwards soon with 1.062 coming into sight
Comment:
Little bit longer young grasshopper 😜 downtrend established on the hourly with a quick up, then right back down, expect more down soon and then a good rejection off the 38 fib could result in a very big move on the way.... See how today goes but going to look for some lengthy consolidation that's tight around the 38 would be the final part to make a strong trend off the retests
Comment:
Strong rejection off the 1.07 levels is also another good sign, and the end of the 1-2-3 pattern, plus line up on the neck of the head and shoulders off the top so target should come in before end of the week with all the selling going on in the market still at the moment
Comment:
Showing a little buying pressure entering the market, there is two different mechanical divergence events from two different angles, so still leaning towards the price continuing downward just a little more. Reinforcement comes in from the price action patterns and just a general action read a lot of shorts should still be held from higher up.
Price may try to maintain this upper range, and even possibly leave topside following a shallow retracement distance expectation, lining right up with the intended flip side on the other side of this trade. Price can't stay here forever, it will have no choice but to reach 1.062, or 1.073, and I'm waiting in both places with plenty of room to work still. Will need one price or the other to continue, but there is a third option, give it a little more time, I can wait for this one
Price may try to maintain this upper range, and even possibly leave topside following a shallow retracement distance expectation, lining right up with the intended flip side on the other side of this trade. Price can't stay here forever, it will have no choice but to reach 1.062, or 1.073, and I'm waiting in both places with plenty of room to work still. Will need one price or the other to continue, but there is a third option, give it a little more time, I can wait for this one
Comment:
The set up looks insane, but this structure of positions can work with all three probabilities, the main plan being the biggest outcome, but this is about control until the market does what we want. We have outside position to utilize inwards and were inside the working range, so planting a second set of positions can assist from the inside out. This is a multiple step process of a trade, once this one is collapsed, I'll start and work from the very beginning once the cycle begins again
Comment:
Now we have an opportunity to make some changes, but first make sure we have some agreement of the market this move is over first.
Comment:
Going to cut the .1 buy order from below and add a new clean buy stop hedge order above at 1.08891, try to get price to squeeze back just a little to regain some equity to use to continue working with the other positions
Comment:
Getting close to the order. Must make some progress here, if not then the hedged will have to be worked in small sections at a time, as all attempts the strategy provided to this point have not been successful. Linear trading can no longer be used and the hidden solution is the next agenda.
This trade could carry a long period of time from here without success. It ends at the bottom of a pull back in this area or new idea and worked from a non linear angle
This trade could carry a long period of time from here without success. It ends at the bottom of a pull back in this area or new idea and worked from a non linear angle
Comment:
Stop buy order modified by 4* pips for rollover (low spread change) and once spread reduces, the extra 4 pips will be removed. Current order price 1.08921
Comment:
Now 1.0887, keeping a 20 pip trail, 18 pips of risk still exposed from the close off the buy.
Comment:
1.088, and holding off on dropping the buy stop lower, staying over the big sell off high on the 5-15 minute. 1.0865 is a potential retest area, so going to stay clear of that for now.
Comment:
Very strong sell off, most likely from those holding from before the last push looking to take some profits. Any other long trades in profit will likely have their stops high in this area to help with the price sell off. Double top out of the 1.088 area should encourage new traders to also take short and look for price to pull back half way back to the breakout up I would think
Comment:
Hedged again, only 10 pips, from the volatility, hardly any equity drawn, so look for another, this one could be a little bit of a fight, but, let's see where we go, higher still? Let's see, USDCAD looks downward an hour ago, so very likely to continue higher here in the euro
Comment:
Trying once more, buy stop closed at even and new buy stop at 1.09114
Trade closed manually:
Trade completely flattened for no gain (+$1.15) but no loss. New idea and reset
Comment:
No loss no gain no foul. Looks to be a fakeout short but hang out in the range around 1.086-1.09 being very likely
Comment:
** Starting balance: $121.33, trade ending balance: $122.48, leverage 1:500, technically a .94%, counting as a "success in failure", hedging did it's job. This will make a great example video....
Looking ahead, once price reaches the 1.0622 level, the sells will all be closed, and I will cut 0.02 off the top buy position, and as a result will recover all the risk currently on the teade and allow for the new sell hedge I'll set below. The extra made off the sells will cover the new risk for the hedge, and I'll have 0.08 risk free long (p&l will be higher than the starting balance)
Still watching for a sudden push up but that's a low possibility from this level, but if price does decide to head for 1.082-3, the same thing will work in reverse to the short side, with similar outcome, but then a new breakeven would have to be made from an add in adjustment off that point. If probability increases I'll calculate the exact numbers, but for now still looking for 1.062