ElliottWaveStats

EUR-USD-PROBABILITY BOXES

OANDA:EURUSD   Euro / U.S. Dollar
This is an approach to my algorithm's real interface. This is what I see each time I use it.

As a quantitative system the reliance is put on the probabilities instead of trying to figure out which the " Wave Count" will be. Letting the correct one to show itself at its time.


PROBABILITY BOXES(PB):

each PB has three components:

Repulsion Line(main line): it is the price when quotes are likely to change direction.

Superior limit(dashed line): it is the Repulsion line + its standard deviation.(color dashed line on charts).

Inferior limit(dash line): it is the Repulsion line - its standard deviation.(color dashed line on charts).

Both limits are in fact an interval error as well, each try of prices to break through, is compared with the same series but in multiple time frames to calculate a MATH HOPE, in other words to translate it into PROBABILITIES.

To be considered as a potential PB, each juncture of these three components must have at least 60% chances to drop the prices out of it.

The counter trend of prices can be done at any point between Sup. And Inf.Limit.Besides, is more likely to expect it to be closer to the Repulsion Line.

Each Repulsion Line can also work as generic STOP LOSS.

Notice that:

*to consider PB broken, prices must have made both to break through and to keep following in this breaking direction(e.g.: in a top it'd be keep going climbing after breaking up through it).
* each PB starts when each PB starts but its influence keeps until its dashed lines be broken.
*before it starts each PB has no effect(obviously).




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