EURUSD - Long Bias For This Week Unless This Changes

EURUSD - Bullish market sentiment is evidenced by the daily breakout and close above the key price and confluent long-term Fib resistance level at 1.1043 on 2/3. Adding further weight to a long-side bias for this week, retail net open interest stands at -1.6927, indicating continued long risk exposure is more favorable than taking-on short risk. At least until and unless price closes below the 8/21 EMA support layer, the EMAs cross-over to the downside, or retail positioning pulls back significantly (to more than -1.2 or higher), or reverses into positive territory. Implied volatility is also low this week until Thursday, so risk reversal on entry will be lower than normal until then.

Comment:

Retail open short interest ratio has increased to -1.86 from -1.6927 yesterday. This increase in short open interest further confirms continued upside risk favored over downside risk reversal. Price is breaking out at 1.12181 and if price closes above the 1.1210 level, long retracement trade will be in play.