Analysis and Forecast EUR / USD - Weekly review (29.06-03.07.)
Summary of the week:
In the last week the single currency was weaker against the dollar by 1.35%. To a large extent this is due to the uncertainty around Greece and the future of the whole euro area. The dollar also was supported by good data from the US, which reassures the market in the belief that the first increases in interest rates will fall.
In the coming week, investors will focus their attention on Greece, which must not only find a compromise in the negotiations but also to repay 1.6 billion to its creditors until 30 June. At the moment the situation is not optimistic, because on Saturday the negotiations were broken off, and the Prime Minister of Greece proposed a referendum on July 5, in which Greek citizens have to make a decision on acceptance or rejection of solutions imposed by the European Union. In case of a negative outcome to be expected from the bankruptcy of Greece, and in this case you can do without panic in the markets.
Do not forget to macroeconomic data, which will be announced next week. It should be noted:
On Monday we will know the data on inflation in Germany and Spain. From the United States we will get data on real estate sales;
On Tuesday we will know fairly important data on unemployment change in Germany and the CPI for the Euro zone. At the end of the day we will know the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board
On Wednesday we will know the PMI for the euro area countries, while the US will flow data on non-farm employment change in the ADP and ISM index for the industry.
On Thursday it will be published minutes of the meeting of the ECB and important US data on unemployment and changes in nonfarm employment.
On Friday we will know the PMI for the euro area countries as well as data on sales in the Euro zone.
The forecast for Monday.
The currency pair is still under pressure and the market will be waited for the end of the talks between Greece and the EU. At the moment, we can expect nervousness, which will surely be conducive to the dollar. The most important economic data tomorrow will flow from the US.
Looking purely technically on a currency pair, we can say that in the last week there was a clearance of consolidation and break down the level of 1.1170. Accordingly, the currency pair after breaking down should turn around in 1,1170-75 and then supply should take the initiative and lead once again to test recent support levels at 1,1129-34 levels. Overcoming aids zone will pave the way for lower price levels. The first objective should be the next support level of 1.1080 or lows of June 5-7.
In an alternative version (poor US data and positive news on Greece) should lead once again to test levels of 1,12-1,1240.
The downward variant seems to be the preferred option but should be vigilant, because any rumors on Greece could lead to severe mood swings, which subsequently translate into a currency pair.
Uptade: The currency pair traded before the opening of the market is already after 1.10. The Sunday session opens downward gap!
In the last week the single currency was weaker against the dollar by 1.35%. To a large extent this is due to the uncertainty around Greece and the future of the whole euro area. The dollar also was supported by good data from the US, which reassures the market in the belief that the first increases in interest rates will fall.
In the coming week, investors will focus their attention on Greece, which must not only find a compromise in the negotiations but also to repay 1.6 billion to its creditors until 30 June. At the moment the situation is not optimistic, because on Saturday the negotiations were broken off, and the Prime Minister of Greece proposed a referendum on July 5, in which Greek citizens have to make a decision on acceptance or rejection of solutions imposed by the European Union. In case of a negative outcome to be expected from the bankruptcy of Greece, and in this case you can do without panic in the markets.
Do not forget to macroeconomic data, which will be announced next week. It should be noted:
On Monday we will know the data on inflation in Germany and Spain. From the United States we will get data on real estate sales;
On Tuesday we will know fairly important data on unemployment change in Germany and the CPI for the Euro zone. At the end of the day we will know the consumer confidence index by the Conference Board
On Wednesday we will know the PMI for the euro area countries, while the US will flow data on non-farm employment change in the ADP and ISM index for the industry.
On Thursday it will be published minutes of the meeting of the ECB and important US data on unemployment and changes in nonfarm employment.
On Friday we will know the PMI for the euro area countries as well as data on sales in the Euro zone.
The forecast for Monday.
The currency pair is still under pressure and the market will be waited for the end of the talks between Greece and the EU. At the moment, we can expect nervousness, which will surely be conducive to the dollar. The most important economic data tomorrow will flow from the US.
Looking purely technically on a currency pair, we can say that in the last week there was a clearance of consolidation and break down the level of 1.1170. Accordingly, the currency pair after breaking down should turn around in 1,1170-75 and then supply should take the initiative and lead once again to test recent support levels at 1,1129-34 levels. Overcoming aids zone will pave the way for lower price levels. The first objective should be the next support level of 1.1080 or lows of June 5-7.
In an alternative version (poor US data and positive news on Greece) should lead once again to test levels of 1,12-1,1240.
The downward variant seems to be the preferred option but should be vigilant, because any rumors on Greece could lead to severe mood swings, which subsequently translate into a currency pair.
Uptade: The currency pair traded before the opening of the market is already after 1.10. The Sunday session opens downward gap!