I had already published a possible path for this pair only to find price move against my prediction. However, it has not moved far and in fact, has closed under the trendlines I have drawn off of the peaks. An expected open tonight under the top trendline will hopefully kickstart a move down. In the short-term, the momentum indicator has dropped to negative and is showing divergence (that is, it has dropped down despite price staying static). In addition, the MACD which is a longer term indicator is also showing some good divergence and has only now dropped onto the very edge of my horizontal line indicating ultra bullish for anything above. Therefore, I do think that there is a higher probability of a move down from here than not. The only negative to note is that the 5EMA has crossed above the 15SMA which is more bullish and so there is a small question mark on this. However, the 5EMA is fairly flat thereby indicating a lackluster move up.
Trade closed: stop reached:
Stopped out on break even. Once again, the movement is undecided and so I will not be re-entering the trade just yet.