Daily Plan 12.13.22
Market Structure
Short Term Trend. Monthly and weekly timeframes remain in balance, daily timeframe trending up.
Profiling. Lots of poor structure from today's US cash session below given the low volume nodes, single prints, etc. What I will be watching for is if we can get fills of this poor structure overnight. First set gets filled at ~4005 and the second at ~3999. Inability to do so is a signal of no supply, so longs are preferred in such scenario.
For tomorrow, I want to observe if the bulls can defend the 4002 level. This is a low volume node from today's session, and it has the monthly VWAP just below it to lean against. This will be my pivot for tomorrow. Failure to gain traction below I think will be good for the buyers and the sellers I think want to take this level out for more potential downside.
CPI. The consensus is the CPI will fall to 7.3% yoy and the core CPI will fall to 6.1% yoy. CPI in recent history has seen some large rips/dips followed by a nasty reversal. We need to be aware of this and prepared to play such scenario, though it also may not come at all. I think this all depends on the nature of the print, whether or not it comes in considerably hot or cold. Something closer and in line with expectations could result in a fade of the initial reaction as the market decides how it wants to interpret the information it is given — but we have to wait for the orderflow to confirm if this is indeed the case.
Tomorrow I think is a pretty important day because I think the current state of the market is utter confusion. For example, TLT is catching a bid, commodities are selling, and consumer staples are catching a bid which is the market anticipating a recession. We will find out tomorrow if the market is right or if it needs to switch course and do some repricing.
Trade Plan Tuesday.
Pivot is 4002.
Above targets 4020 / 4031. Break and hold > 4031 targets 4060 / 4075 / 4101.
Below targets 3990 / 3971. Break and hold < 3971 targets 3960 / 3937 / 3915.
Use it as a guide but prepare to change any bias swiftly and quickly.
Stay Frosty, be nimble, and don't get married to one side of the market.
*Disclaimer: Reminder that this newsletter is nothing more than my opinions and a documentation of my personal journey in the markets. This newsletter is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor and nothing I say should be taken as an endorsement to buy or sell any security or asset. This is not an alert service. Never engage in market speculation if you are uncomfortable with the potential risk. By subscribing to this newsletter you are agreeing to these terms.
Market Structure
Short Term Trend. Monthly and weekly timeframes remain in balance, daily timeframe trending up.
Profiling. Lots of poor structure from today's US cash session below given the low volume nodes, single prints, etc. What I will be watching for is if we can get fills of this poor structure overnight. First set gets filled at ~4005 and the second at ~3999. Inability to do so is a signal of no supply, so longs are preferred in such scenario.
For tomorrow, I want to observe if the bulls can defend the 4002 level. This is a low volume node from today's session, and it has the monthly VWAP just below it to lean against. This will be my pivot for tomorrow. Failure to gain traction below I think will be good for the buyers and the sellers I think want to take this level out for more potential downside.
CPI. The consensus is the CPI will fall to 7.3% yoy and the core CPI will fall to 6.1% yoy. CPI in recent history has seen some large rips/dips followed by a nasty reversal. We need to be aware of this and prepared to play such scenario, though it also may not come at all. I think this all depends on the nature of the print, whether or not it comes in considerably hot or cold. Something closer and in line with expectations could result in a fade of the initial reaction as the market decides how it wants to interpret the information it is given — but we have to wait for the orderflow to confirm if this is indeed the case.
Tomorrow I think is a pretty important day because I think the current state of the market is utter confusion. For example, TLT is catching a bid, commodities are selling, and consumer staples are catching a bid which is the market anticipating a recession. We will find out tomorrow if the market is right or if it needs to switch course and do some repricing.
Trade Plan Tuesday.
Pivot is 4002.
Above targets 4020 / 4031. Break and hold > 4031 targets 4060 / 4075 / 4101.
Below targets 3990 / 3971. Break and hold < 3971 targets 3960 / 3937 / 3915.
Use it as a guide but prepare to change any bias swiftly and quickly.
Stay Frosty, be nimble, and don't get married to one side of the market.
*Disclaimer: Reminder that this newsletter is nothing more than my opinions and a documentation of my personal journey in the markets. This newsletter is for educational purposes only. I am not a financial advisor and nothing I say should be taken as an endorsement to buy or sell any security or asset. This is not an alert service. Never engage in market speculation if you are uncomfortable with the potential risk. By subscribing to this newsletter you are agreeing to these terms.
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