Awaiting USA recession. The time still not come
3 years have passed since the end of the recession, as a new one arrived. The average waiting time for a new world recession is 8-10 years, i.e. the recession is expected in 2028-2030. But the world and the USA will face a new global crisis much earlier - in 2023-2024.
Stock market crash in 2020
The past stock market crash in 2020, backed by cash income, expected all-time based on growth rate. I guess the current situation will be different. An accidental lesson is revealed from the stormy recession, which dragged on with the emergence of a crisis in time, which implies the possibility of an inefficient company going bankrupt in order to realize the economy and only then flood the emissions of the economy.
Inversion and timing
Yield curve inversion is a prerequisite for a recession, it is a fundamental indicator with a 100% probability of working out. But the event itself does not mean that the crisis will come tomorrow. The crisis can come within 1-2 years. Other methods are used to determine the exact date of the index topping, such as the US unemployment index, which should start to rise.
In past crises, the market made new all-time highs after a yield curve inversion and only then fell. Now we should expect such behavior.
Resume
Buying and holding an index or stock after an inverted yield curve is prohibited.
To play short, additional confirmations are required, because after an inversion, the index may set a new all-time high. Which is most likely to happen.
Stock market crash in 2020
The past stock market crash in 2020, backed by cash income, expected all-time based on growth rate. I guess the current situation will be different. An accidental lesson is revealed from the stormy recession, which dragged on with the emergence of a crisis in time, which implies the possibility of an inefficient company going bankrupt in order to realize the economy and only then flood the emissions of the economy.
Inversion and timing
Yield curve inversion is a prerequisite for a recession, it is a fundamental indicator with a 100% probability of working out. But the event itself does not mean that the crisis will come tomorrow. The crisis can come within 1-2 years. Other methods are used to determine the exact date of the index topping, such as the US unemployment index, which should start to rise.
In past crises, the market made new all-time highs after a yield curve inversion and only then fell. Now we should expect such behavior.
Resume
Buying and holding an index or stock after an inverted yield curve is prohibited.
To play short, additional confirmations are required, because after an inversion, the index may set a new all-time high. Which is most likely to happen.