Trade Review from Thursday 7.27.23 From Weekly Idea
Wanted to give a review on yesterday to show how balance levels and structure can be used to give us possible direction and idea of where and when to get on and get off.
This is bigger time frame chart not an execution chart that I use but the idea can be seen here.
From Sunday Weekly prep we marked off 4562.50-57 as our Support, 4570-62.50 in general is a Key Support. Our options then were either get under the support and head for lower stops or get back over 70 and head back for resistance which was 95-90 for possible continuation over. Monday/Tuesday went for resistance which made our upside target in play, we took out 85-90, held above and got the move into our Key Resistance target without tagging the upper side of it.
Fed day trapped short under 90 as everyone were ready for the flush but we just cleared the range up and down without really breaking structure.
Thursday Globex opened over 90 and right away started pushing into 4603 once we took out those stops above that gave the push to break through Key Resistance area and push over 4614. Mentioned yesterday morning update that this move was done during Globex when Volume is lighter and that was Key Resistance, we had very good chance for the price to come back inside. In morning prep I figured if we are really strong we should stay above 23 and if we can get through 28 we can see 32-36 which was next area of Resistance but if we can't tag/get over 36 and we could see us come back towards 23-14 and possibly 4610-03 with 98.75 being area to break for continuation that could be potential Support or because it was Fed day and that would make it a look above and fail of Key Resistance it could take give a much bigger move back to lower Supports.
Once we failed under 36 we got the first trade back towards 23-14.50. I was able to catch it from 30.25 to 16, I exited there because we didn't break 14.50 right away and that was good enough for me and currently I only try to trade one move at a time and not hold runners be because to capture the whole trade you need to be able to withstand a lot of heat and that can mess things up quick. Second trade once we pulled back to 23.25 it was showing weakness, I did get shaken out of my 23.25 entry because I got in early and it was still choppy there but I did get in again with 19 average. There really was no reason to exit for me as 98.75 broke and needed to just wait a little to see if we will continue but I got out at 4601 and missed the re entry at 98.75 when we went lower, after that it was hard to get on again. I did catch a little 70-65 after we broke 78-76 and called it a day.
Now can see everyone who got very short end of day and shorted the lows and didn't close out before market got back over 4570 became our support and buying going into today, yesterday was just a flush of inventory that broke stops inside this range, we didn't have enough selling to continue or stay under now we returned back to the mean to our resistance area. Probably wont be an easy day today Potential Support is 4589-85 and resistance 4598-4603 // 4609.75-4614.50
This is bigger time frame chart not an execution chart that I use but the idea can be seen here.
From Sunday Weekly prep we marked off 4562.50-57 as our Support, 4570-62.50 in general is a Key Support. Our options then were either get under the support and head for lower stops or get back over 70 and head back for resistance which was 95-90 for possible continuation over. Monday/Tuesday went for resistance which made our upside target in play, we took out 85-90, held above and got the move into our Key Resistance target without tagging the upper side of it.
Fed day trapped short under 90 as everyone were ready for the flush but we just cleared the range up and down without really breaking structure.
Thursday Globex opened over 90 and right away started pushing into 4603 once we took out those stops above that gave the push to break through Key Resistance area and push over 4614. Mentioned yesterday morning update that this move was done during Globex when Volume is lighter and that was Key Resistance, we had very good chance for the price to come back inside. In morning prep I figured if we are really strong we should stay above 23 and if we can get through 28 we can see 32-36 which was next area of Resistance but if we can't tag/get over 36 and we could see us come back towards 23-14 and possibly 4610-03 with 98.75 being area to break for continuation that could be potential Support or because it was Fed day and that would make it a look above and fail of Key Resistance it could take give a much bigger move back to lower Supports.
Once we failed under 36 we got the first trade back towards 23-14.50. I was able to catch it from 30.25 to 16, I exited there because we didn't break 14.50 right away and that was good enough for me and currently I only try to trade one move at a time and not hold runners be because to capture the whole trade you need to be able to withstand a lot of heat and that can mess things up quick. Second trade once we pulled back to 23.25 it was showing weakness, I did get shaken out of my 23.25 entry because I got in early and it was still choppy there but I did get in again with 19 average. There really was no reason to exit for me as 98.75 broke and needed to just wait a little to see if we will continue but I got out at 4601 and missed the re entry at 98.75 when we went lower, after that it was hard to get on again. I did catch a little 70-65 after we broke 78-76 and called it a day.
Now can see everyone who got very short end of day and shorted the lows and didn't close out before market got back over 4570 became our support and buying going into today, yesterday was just a flush of inventory that broke stops inside this range, we didn't have enough selling to continue or stay under now we returned back to the mean to our resistance area. Probably wont be an easy day today Potential Support is 4589-85 and resistance 4598-4603 // 4609.75-4614.50
Comment:
89.50 tagged and got a bounce, watch and see if they try to run todays High stops still but other than that unless size comes in this should be it for the day