IvanMitev

MP S&P Analysis of 9-14-18 and Plan for 9-17-18

Short
CME_MINI:ES1!   S&P 500 E-mini Futures
Based on ESZ18

Better Volume – green volume churn; typical for end of trend; note however that due to contract roll, not clear BEARISH BUT INCONCLUSIVE

Developing TA Patterns – Rising Wedge (bearish); possible developing Double-Top (bearish); breakout on ascending triangle (Bullish); overall BEARISH INCONCLUSIVE

Initial Balance – apx 8pts

S&P 500 Index Daily Range – 12.53pts

S&P 500 Index Daily Range 15 day moving average – 15.96pts

Trend – Long and Short uptrend BULLISH

TPO Day – looks like Non-Trend

Reference Points:
- ATH 2914 - + 5 futures 2919
- High of Day – 2914.75
- VAH 2913.75
- Close 2911.25
- TPO and Volume POC at 2911-2912
- VAL 2907 but volume was higher – very narrow volume profile value area
- Low of Day - 2902
- Single Print Buying Tail at 2902; it’s a poor low because it ties of previous day low. Mechanical short term buyer propped market after tariff news. Otherwise this is a good support indicator.

Open – outside of Value but barely within Range; overlapping profile; open auction out of range

Initial Balance range – Normal

Overall Attempted Direction – Moderately strong balancing BULLISH

BREADHT/TICK – mixed

Oscillators – Long Term is overbought but Wave Trend not there yet; Short Term is mixed bag. MODERATELY BEARISH

Special Situation – none

News - ?

Overall – Long Term STRONG BULISH; Short Term MODERATELY BEARISH due to internals and overall extension

Monday Plan: There are no up references other than the ATH and the high of the day of 2914. Should watch for a test of ATH and breakout. Preferably we see uptrend exhaustion Open Test Drive or Open Rejection Reverse Drive. Monitor for short if indication of REJECTION on up drive. Stop is at 25% of Initial Balance High. Confirm with MarketDelta TrackBook/Bookmap or other orderflow analysis. If Monday opens low, likely no chase trade and test of 2903.
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