DXY Bearish Crab vs Bullish Alt Crab Pattern
Currently price is battling for dominance between two
'crustacean's' i.e. a bearish crab and an Alt bullish crab
pattern.
At the moment, looking at the close of this months candle it
seems clear that price is ready to dive lower and resume
the bearish trend that has been in tact since the end of
1985. However, there is a slim chance of seeing the 100.00
and 110.00 level as long as the 91.00 level below holds.
Looking back at price action in the past, we can see that
price, after it dropped from 129.67 to 78.19, it retraced
till the 78.6% retracement level from where it resumed
the bearish trend till the 70.70 level. If price continues
to emulate the pattern from the past, hence remaining
harmonic, then it is plausible that now, too, we will see
the current retracement reach the 78.6% level which is
at the 110.25 level. This level is near the trend line cross
over level formed between the main upper trend
resistance line and the current bullish support trend line.
In addition, the 110.00 level is also significant because it
is the 61.8% retracement level from 129.67 to 78.19,
thus, a significant Fibonacci confluence zone.
If price manages to rally beyond the 97.00 level but gets
stopped at the 103.82, hence forming the depicted
potential double top, then the primary bearish trend
will resume. The measured target objective reaches the
72.70 level, which is leg A of the Bearish Crab pattern.
Should price drop below the 91.00 level from the current
levels then expect 84.75 as the next target, thus, leg B
of the Bearish Crab pattern. Further evidence for price
to resume a bearish trend can be seen by looking at the
RSI indicator, namely, it has been rejected for a third
time at the upper trend resistance line. Even if price
action rallies to the 103.80 level, I believe that there
will be bearish divergence created on the RSI indicator,
which would then indicate the validity of the potential
double top.
For now, focus remains on the 95.70 and 91.00 level. If
either is broken by the end of this Septembre we will know
with more certainty which direction price will go.
Remember, too, that this month there will be another
likely rate hike for the USD so price action will most likely
consolidate, or drop down and test the 91.00 level.
I haven't added any trade ideas since I personally dont
trade the monthly time frames, however, should price
close below the 91.00 level I have indicated a possible
bearish price action path, breaking and testing support
and resistance levels as it slowly but surely reaches for
the 72.70 level below.
Because of the USD interest rate decision this month and
the DXY being at a crucial level, it is commendable to
trade any USD pair with caution till the end of this month.
Happy trading
Currently price is battling for dominance between two
'crustacean's' i.e. a bearish crab and an Alt bullish crab
pattern.
At the moment, looking at the close of this months candle it
seems clear that price is ready to dive lower and resume
the bearish trend that has been in tact since the end of
1985. However, there is a slim chance of seeing the 100.00
and 110.00 level as long as the 91.00 level below holds.
Looking back at price action in the past, we can see that
price, after it dropped from 129.67 to 78.19, it retraced
till the 78.6% retracement level from where it resumed
the bearish trend till the 70.70 level. If price continues
to emulate the pattern from the past, hence remaining
harmonic, then it is plausible that now, too, we will see
the current retracement reach the 78.6% level which is
at the 110.25 level. This level is near the trend line cross
over level formed between the main upper trend
resistance line and the current bullish support trend line.
In addition, the 110.00 level is also significant because it
is the 61.8% retracement level from 129.67 to 78.19,
thus, a significant Fibonacci confluence zone.
If price manages to rally beyond the 97.00 level but gets
stopped at the 103.82, hence forming the depicted
potential double top, then the primary bearish trend
will resume. The measured target objective reaches the
72.70 level, which is leg A of the Bearish Crab pattern.
Should price drop below the 91.00 level from the current
levels then expect 84.75 as the next target, thus, leg B
of the Bearish Crab pattern. Further evidence for price
to resume a bearish trend can be seen by looking at the
RSI indicator, namely, it has been rejected for a third
time at the upper trend resistance line. Even if price
action rallies to the 103.80 level, I believe that there
will be bearish divergence created on the RSI indicator,
which would then indicate the validity of the potential
double top.
For now, focus remains on the 95.70 and 91.00 level. If
either is broken by the end of this Septembre we will know
with more certainty which direction price will go.
Remember, too, that this month there will be another
likely rate hike for the USD so price action will most likely
consolidate, or drop down and test the 91.00 level.
I haven't added any trade ideas since I personally dont
trade the monthly time frames, however, should price
close below the 91.00 level I have indicated a possible
bearish price action path, breaking and testing support
and resistance levels as it slowly but surely reaches for
the 72.70 level below.
Because of the USD interest rate decision this month and
the DXY being at a crucial level, it is commendable to
trade any USD pair with caution till the end of this month.
Happy trading