Daily: USD Indx had a nice rally from the lows at 79, and quite a correction from the top at 81. What do the indicators show now?
components: Price is at the Kumo, two days ago the bottom of teh cloud provided a good support. Tenkan below Kijun, but bothe lines are above the Kumo. Chikou Span is below price and in the Kumo. This is a hard situation, but in general until the Price doesn't break below the Kumo, we can not consider it as . Actually it has become neutral now after the corrective counter wave.
Meanwhile Slow became oversold, and yesterday gave a buy signal, may slowly turn up again. DMI is neutral/ , but can easily give a cross.
As I marked on the chart, it is very similar to the Kumo retest and reversal that happened in early April on the other side. From these levels I give a bigger chance for a spike up, then for a further dip. What we have to look for now is the lower, 4 Hrs time frame. In case price can not print a lower low there, which also means price would not break below the Kumo on , then Bulls may get back in control.
The important levels are clear: lower suppoprt is 79,75. Upper resistances are 80,21 / 80,39.
My recommendation is to wait for one more dip within current daily Kumo, watch if price prints a lower low on 4 Hrs , and if not, then start to build long positions in smaller clips. Later if we see a clear break on 4 Hrs (which will be likely supported by daily technicals too by then), size up the longs.
p.s.: Today is going to be important, since the EURUSD is the major component within USD Indx , and again there is a good chance Draghi will try to talk EURUSD lower somehow.
Regarding stocks I am happy to publish more if you want, but as some guys already know I am quite bearish biased there :-). And stocks can not go anywhere else just up up and up, right? ;-)
I have a friend, who had a funny theory a few years ago: Interest rates will go to zero, volatility will go to zero, thus stock and stock index prices will fly to infinity and beyond :-D. Will he be right?