Kumowizard
Long

USD Indx - Should we long USD in general? Is it a pivot point?

INDEX:DXY   US DOLLAR CURRENCY INDEX
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Let's try to look at it from pure technical perspective.

Daily: USD Indx had a nice rally from the lows at 79, and quite a correction from the top at 81. What do the indicators show now?
Ichimoku components: Price is at the Kumo, two days ago the bottom of teh cloud provided a good support. Tenkan below Kijun, but bothe lines are above the Kumo. Chikou Span is below price and in the Kumo. This is a hard situation, but in general until the Price doesn't break below the Kumo, we can not consider it as bearish . Actually it has become neutral now after the corrective counter wave.
Meanwhile Slow Stoch became oversold, and yesterday gave a buy signal, MACD may slowly turn up again. DMI is neutral/ bearish , but can easily give a bullish cross.

As I marked on the chart, it is very similar to the Kumo retest and reversal that happened in early April on the other side. From these levels I give a bigger chance for a spike up, then for a further dip. What we have to look for now is the lower, 4 Hrs time frame. In case price can not print a lower low there, which also means price would not break below the Kumo on daily chart , then Bulls may get back in control.
The important levels are clear: lower suppoprt is 79,75. Upper resistances are 80,21 / 80,39.

My recommendation is to wait for one more dip within current daily Kumo, watch if price prints a lower low on 4 Hrs , and if not, then start to build long positions in smaller clips. Later if we see a clear bullish break on 4 Hrs (which will be likely supported by daily technicals too by then), size up the longs.

p.s.: Today is going to be important, since the EURUSD is the major component within USD Indx , and again there is a good chance Draghi will try to talk EURUSD lower somehow.

Comments

More stock analysis of such please :) And you check DMI? You find it better than RSI or CCI? I find using DMI separately from those a bit more false leading as it tends to wave here and there too much. But with Ichimoku should be give better signals
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I find DMI very useful as an additional indicator to Ichimoku. Espec on 4 Hrs time frame.
Regarding stocks I am happy to publish more if you want, but as some guys already know I am quite bearish biased there :-). And stocks can not go anywhere else just up up and up, right? ;-)

I have a friend, who had a funny theory a few years ago: Interest rates will go to zero, volatility will go to zero, thus stock and stock index prices will fly to infinity and beyond :-D. Will he be right?
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2use Kumowizard
Sweden had it interest rate lowered 60% today....Still, i am not looking for bullish charts only, i am looking for an idea that is supported by good grounds. If i disagree, i won't take it - if i find it correct, i will take it in account. And best of all - if your predictions are successful, none can say you were wrong.
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