Affter the Cypher we trade since february, a Butterfly pattern showed up, and as expected we had first the 38.1 fibro retracement. After that we saw also a bull impulse but then Draghi made his cute speech, so then a double top, and finally the 68% fibo retracement in the same butterfly last friday, after astonishing employment news. Could you beleive it? Yes, beleive it, and dont try to oversmart the market, he is smarter than you.
In the fundamental analysis, Mr Draghi already knows that using all the bullets in the arsenal had worked, and situation is improving, so to be clear, we are not now in an emergency situation as few months ago. But guys, really, do you think that they are going to hike interes rates before 9 months or a year? Come on, that is not going to happen soon. Just remember what the FRB did since the end of 2014 ...... first, they announced it. They are smart guys, and they know they are not ready for.
Anyway, be aware that what ECB says is really serious and we will be experiencing its effects in the DXY as European economic situation improves as expected, but not for now, at least 2 more weeks. Also be noticed that we will be receiving FOMC news near the same level last FOMC rate hike or 101.04, so what is happening with the EUR is very serious, because that bear impulse we experienced most of january is not for free.
So, at least for me, we are in the same bullish trend since february this year. For now, we are trading a head and shoulder so we should be bull in the short term, so you can place your USD trades above 101.41. Also, consider that seems that right now also oversold. This is short term, so will save my bullets till wednesday FOMC.
Remember that forecast and interest rake are revelaed at the same time, something like 30 minutes before Yellen speech, so the moment to trade will be that one for the next 15 minutes so you can trade the peak ... stop order .... and after Yellen go again with the first impulse.
Alternative A FOMC interest rate hike: In this one, I will be bull, but for how much? If the market has good memory and repeat its previous pattern (as usually happens), we should be arriving the 103.5 level in the next 24 hours .... nothing more than that. After that, watch price action and be ready. EP 101.84 TP1 102.85 TP2 103.50 SL 101.37
Alternative B FOMC keeps interest rate: Lets go bear below 101.0 and arrive first to the 100.36 level, next 99.8, and next, you could see it.
In the fundamental analysis, Mr Draghi already knows that using all the bullets in the arsenal had worked, and situation is improving, so to be clear, we are not now in an emergency situation as few months ago. But guys, really, do you think that they are going to hike interes rates before 9 months or a year? Come on, that is not going to happen soon. Just remember what the FRB did since the end of 2014 ...... first, they announced it. They are smart guys, and they know they are not ready for.
Anyway, be aware that what ECB says is really serious and we will be experiencing its effects in the DXY as European economic situation improves as expected, but not for now, at least 2 more weeks. Also be noticed that we will be receiving FOMC news near the same level last FOMC rate hike or 101.04, so what is happening with the EUR is very serious, because that bear impulse we experienced most of january is not for free.
So, at least for me, we are in the same bullish trend since february this year. For now, we are trading a head and shoulder so we should be bull in the short term, so you can place your USD trades above 101.41. Also, consider that seems that right now also oversold. This is short term, so will save my bullets till wednesday FOMC.
Remember that forecast and interest rake are revelaed at the same time, something like 30 minutes before Yellen speech, so the moment to trade will be that one for the next 15 minutes so you can trade the peak ... stop order .... and after Yellen go again with the first impulse.
Alternative A FOMC interest rate hike: In this one, I will be bull, but for how much? If the market has good memory and repeat its previous pattern (as usually happens), we should be arriving the 103.5 level in the next 24 hours .... nothing more than that. After that, watch price action and be ready. EP 101.84 TP1 102.85 TP2 103.50 SL 101.37
Alternative B FOMC keeps interest rate: Lets go bear below 101.0 and arrive first to the 100.36 level, next 99.8, and next, you could see it.