DOTUSDT - who is bullish on crypto?
Disclaimer: I don't have a fundamental basis to actually believe in this scenario, but what I see on the chart I see on the chart.
With that out of the way, the shown scenario of an impulse followed by a rather big flat correction, which might be done now, would be extremely bullish, since it would suggest new all time highs (that would be a 13x from here at minimum).
Never only consider one way though, even without changing too much of the count, a not so nice mid/long-term alternative would be this:
With that out of the way, the shown scenario of an impulse followed by a rather big flat correction, which might be done now, would be extremely bullish, since it would suggest new all time highs (that would be a 13x from here at minimum).
Never only consider one way though, even without changing too much of the count, a not so nice mid/long-term alternative would be this:
Comment:
From the mentioned update on patreon from 2 days ago:
Perfectly shown the zone where it ultimately stopped and called out watching for the 6.5$ - 6.8$ range to hold in case of a deeper drop. Only had a few wicks below 6.5$ on the 1h and 4h.
We will have to see if it continues going for new highs immediately, but it wasn't a difficult trade to take:
https://ibb.co/Nmb4DbG
Perfectly shown the zone where it ultimately stopped and called out watching for the 6.5$ - 6.8$ range to hold in case of a deeper drop. Only had a few wicks below 6.5$ on the 1h and 4h.
We will have to see if it continues going for new highs immediately, but it wasn't a difficult trade to take:
https://ibb.co/Nmb4DbG
Comment:
Perfectly moved from one zone to the other:
Two possible counts that would have this continue higher:
One alternative that would have this move be done:
For a continuation, holding this zone would look nicely:
Should that not hold, the next spot to look for a hold:
And if even that gets a sustained break, I'd say it's likely we'll at least revist mid 6$, but I'll think about that then.
Two possible counts that would have this continue higher:
One alternative that would have this move be done:
For a continuation, holding this zone would look nicely:
Should that not hold, the next spot to look for a hold:
And if even that gets a sustained break, I'd say it's likely we'll at least revist mid 6$, but I'll think about that then.
Comment:
Looks like crypto did a crypto.
Patreon exclusive update from yesterday pointing out another likely wave down:
with a mention that a break of the red lines would likely lead noticeably lower.
I mentioned that in the last update here too, saying that breaking that would lead to mid 6$ and that's exactly where we went with a noteworthy reaction from 6.5$ for the time being.
So what now?
We basically played ping pong between these two zones (compare Dec 12th and Dec 28th updates) and as it was before, this would've been a good zone for a buy again, though you weren't really given a chance to buy, if you weren't already prepared.
So there isn't really much to do here besides waiting how it continues. Another visit of that zone (white line) would be one to watch, if it offers.
Patreon exclusive update from yesterday pointing out another likely wave down:
with a mention that a break of the red lines would likely lead noticeably lower.
I mentioned that in the last update here too, saying that breaking that would lead to mid 6$ and that's exactly where we went with a noteworthy reaction from 6.5$ for the time being.
So what now?
We basically played ping pong between these two zones (compare Dec 12th and Dec 28th updates) and as it was before, this would've been a good zone for a buy again, though you weren't really given a chance to buy, if you weren't already prepared.
So there isn't really much to do here besides waiting how it continues. Another visit of that zone (white line) would be one to watch, if it offers.
Comment:
Well, there it was, offered that zone once more as predicted.
Lots of possibilities on the table now though. Could be seen as a zigzag as labeled above, which still could be just the first wave of a bigger correction, which again could turn into a sideways or sharp correction.
Alternatively we might have just finished a wave 3 of an impulse on that low and might still have another kick to go down to finish just an A wave.
Either way first resistance coming up, will have to see what it does there for starters.
Lots of possibilities on the table now though. Could be seen as a zigzag as labeled above, which still could be just the first wave of a bigger correction, which again could turn into a sideways or sharp correction.
Alternatively we might have just finished a wave 3 of an impulse on that low and might still have another kick to go down to finish just an A wave.
Either way first resistance coming up, will have to see what it does there for starters.
Comment:
First real break of that 6.2$-6.6$ zone.
Multiple ways to get there, but I'd be looking for 5$-5.6$ next:
Possibly testing the previous 6.2$+ zone from below first before going deeper.
Multiple ways to get there, but I'd be looking for 5$-5.6$ next:
Possibly testing the previous 6.2$+ zone from below first before going deeper.
Comment:
Alternative, if we manage to regain this zone here again.
Comment:
Followed the path shown in the last update pretty nicely so far:
Some side notes to consider, if we get a sustained break above the ~7.7$ level:
1. While not my primary assumptions at this point, it is possible that the last low did already finish the correction of the full move from the low.
2. We could also get a bigger sideways correction, that tests the highs before going for another low or testing the previous low:
A flat shown in the image above as one possibility.
Some side notes to consider, if we get a sustained break above the ~7.7$ level:
1. While not my primary assumptions at this point, it is possible that the last low did already finish the correction of the full move from the low.
2. We could also get a bigger sideways correction, that tests the highs before going for another low or testing the previous low:
A flat shown in the image above as one possibility.
Comment:
The two paths shown in the previous update are still the ones I'm looking at:
Comment:
Has been following the orange path so far (compare images in the last two updates).
Holding this zone here / the red lines, would look good for more immediate upside.
Holding this zone here / the red lines, would look good for more immediate upside.
Comment:
Nice hold there for a start.
Doesn't mean that it can't test all that another time, but that was a buy for me.
I hope I'm not the only one making profits here: ibb.co/4VSGjn7
That's from my copy trading account, that I started this year, link is in my profile, if you're interested in seeing the performance.
Doesn't mean that it can't test all that another time, but that was a buy for me.
I hope I'm not the only one making profits here: ibb.co/4VSGjn7
That's from my copy trading account, that I started this year, link is in my profile, if you're interested in seeing the performance.
Comment:
Test it one more time it did and hold once more it did too:
And an even slightly prettier hold right here:
That geometry in the second image I've shared a few times here before too. First time was 28th december 2023 (second to last image).
Levels:
And an even slightly prettier hold right here:
That geometry in the second image I've shared a few times here before too. First time was 28th december 2023 (second to last image).
Levels:
Comment:
Happy pump day everyone!
Let's zoom out a bit today:
Last bit of resistance here, then we're back the the highs.
As shown in the Jan. 30th update (last image), there is a possibility of a bigger sideways correction as such:
If bitcoin continues like this though, there's no reason not to consider that wave 2 was already completed at the 6$ low:
One more alternative to consider:
We do remember this one right?
Not suggesting it has to stop at the upcoming lines, getting above and testing from above would be a nice thing to see for the more bullish scenarios.
Getting above and staying over 9.6$/9.8 would lead to another small level block around 10.2 with the next big cluster at 11$-11.5$ and 12.5$/12.6$ after that. If we're getting that high though, I'd expect it to continue quite a bit further, but we'll get there, when we get there.
Let's zoom out a bit today:
Last bit of resistance here, then we're back the the highs.
As shown in the Jan. 30th update (last image), there is a possibility of a bigger sideways correction as such:
If bitcoin continues like this though, there's no reason not to consider that wave 2 was already completed at the 6$ low:
One more alternative to consider:
We do remember this one right?
Not suggesting it has to stop at the upcoming lines, getting above and testing from above would be a nice thing to see for the more bullish scenarios.
Getting above and staying over 9.6$/9.8 would lead to another small level block around 10.2 with the next big cluster at 11$-11.5$ and 12.5$/12.6$ after that. If we're getting that high though, I'd expect it to continue quite a bit further, but we'll get there, when we get there.
Comment:
Heh, well that one held for now.
Let's see if we still manage to get to the upper one or if that was the start towards another low after all.
Let's see if we still manage to get to the upper one or if that was the start towards another low after all.
Comment:
Got into that last target zone, I've taken some good profits here from the 7.xx$ swing buys, since this was my primary target for that swing. Leaving portions open, if it decides to keep going and I'm still holding spot from sub 5$ accumulation.
It will take some time and further development to better gauge which (if any) of the shown possibilities from the update 3 days ago is playing out.
It will take some time and further development to better gauge which (if any) of the shown possibilities from the update 3 days ago is playing out.
Comment:
Bit of a moment of truth spot here.
As mentioned in the Feb. 28th update, we got above 9.6/9.8 and hit 10.2, which is where we stopped for now.
Everything that has been resistance is now to be considered support until broken again, so holding that orange zone would be great for continuation and as mentioned getting a sustained break above that 10.2$ level, will likely be followed by noticeably higher levels.
As mentioned in the Feb. 28th update, we got above 9.6/9.8 and hit 10.2, which is where we stopped for now.
Everything that has been resistance is now to be considered support until broken again, so holding that orange zone would be great for continuation and as mentioned getting a sustained break above that 10.2$ level, will likely be followed by noticeably higher levels.
Comment:
Quite the liquidation event there over the crypto space, which I admittedly didn't anticipate (at least not on DOT, I had some sitting orders on other stuff that got filled).
Because geometry and support wise, it did hit nice levels with that 8.20$ (compare last updates):
And as mentioned in the Feb 28th update, after 10.2$, next would be 11$-11.5$, which we touched the lower bound of.
Alternative geometry:
Where to from here?
From an EW perspective everything from the Feb 28th update is still possible:
a) The uber bull 1:
b) the uber bull 2:
c) the finished impulse
d) the larger corrective
Pick according to your overall crypto bias, I'm leaning more bullish at this point.
As for levels to watch, it's the same ones all over again:
For a)
The most shallow one would be holding that 10.1$-10.2$, below that 9.5$-9.6$ (possible upper range at 9.8$), then 9.1$-9.3$ and 8.5$ to 8.8$ as the lowest for a). Below that we're more likely (if still uber bullish)
in b)
where 8.0$-8.2$ comes back into play and 7.4$-7.7$ below that.
Those are just the levels on the chart in combination with the geometry (would depend on the time when/if the levels are hit). For a clearer view it would be necessary to see in what form they reach what levels. Either way, we'd need to lose double digits first to require further thought. If and when we get above 11.5$, I'd expect to hit 12.5$ eventually, though starting at 12$ there might be resistance.
Alright that was a big one.... too much? too little? too confusing?
Because geometry and support wise, it did hit nice levels with that 8.20$ (compare last updates):
And as mentioned in the Feb 28th update, after 10.2$, next would be 11$-11.5$, which we touched the lower bound of.
Alternative geometry:
Where to from here?
From an EW perspective everything from the Feb 28th update is still possible:
a) The uber bull 1:
b) the uber bull 2:
c) the finished impulse
d) the larger corrective
Pick according to your overall crypto bias, I'm leaning more bullish at this point.
As for levels to watch, it's the same ones all over again:
For a)
The most shallow one would be holding that 10.1$-10.2$, below that 9.5$-9.6$ (possible upper range at 9.8$), then 9.1$-9.3$ and 8.5$ to 8.8$ as the lowest for a). Below that we're more likely (if still uber bullish)
in b)
where 8.0$-8.2$ comes back into play and 7.4$-7.7$ below that.
Those are just the levels on the chart in combination with the geometry (would depend on the time when/if the levels are hit). For a clearer view it would be necessary to see in what form they reach what levels. Either way, we'd need to lose double digits first to require further thought. If and when we get above 11.5$, I'd expect to hit 12.5$ eventually, though starting at 12$ there might be resistance.
Alright that was a big one.... too much? too little? too confusing?
Comment:
As mentioned in the last update the 10.1$/10.2$ zone basically held with only wicks below that all got immediately bought up into or above the zone. The lowest dip below hit 9.8$, which was also the next level I mentioned. We got into the 11$-11.5$ zone multiple times, ultimately reaching the upper limit and getting a bit above (close to the again previously mentioned 12$).
Now we've lost that zone and are currently sitting at that 10.1$/10.2$ range again.
There are a few too many possibilities countwise at this point, so I'll leave it at what I showed in the last updates. The levels to watch are still the same. If btc continues moving towards 60k, I wouldn't be surprised to see the lower 8$ range on DOT again.
The log and arithmetic geometry that I've been showing also points at some support where we are now, with 8$-9$ (for starters) below if/once lost:
Now we've lost that zone and are currently sitting at that 10.1$/10.2$ range again.
There are a few too many possibilities countwise at this point, so I'll leave it at what I showed in the last updates. The levels to watch are still the same. If btc continues moving towards 60k, I wouldn't be surprised to see the lower 8$ range on DOT again.
The log and arithmetic geometry that I've been showing also points at some support where we are now, with 8$-9$ (for starters) below if/once lost:
Comment:
And so we have arrived in the 8s.
The conservative count would have this as a ZigZag down (white count, yellow path). Still as a Zigzag, but with the B-wave not yet done would be the orange path. With the red path it could still be a C wave that goes deeper or a wave 3 of an impulse to the downside.
One more thing to add to the possibility space would be a larger degree contracting diag:
The conservative count would have this as a ZigZag down (white count, yellow path). Still as a Zigzag, but with the B-wave not yet done would be the orange path. With the red path it could still be a C wave that goes deeper or a wave 3 of an impulse to the downside.
One more thing to add to the possibility space would be a larger degree contracting diag:
Comment:
Touched the blue at the low and now once more in the purple:
Not much volume on the current move up and so far contained within a channel.
Not much volume on the current move up and so far contained within a channel.
Comment:
Stayed contained within the channel and moved according to the red path shown in the last update.
If or when btc decides to drop towards 60k (or lower) again, that would certainly send DOT (and a bunch of alts across the field) noticeably lower, which IMO would be the opportunity to buy heavier again.
Should that opportunity arise:
I'd say 6-7$ are likely and even somewhere in the 5s is definitely on the table. Just something to have on the radar in case of a little flush in the space.
If or when btc decides to drop towards 60k (or lower) again, that would certainly send DOT (and a bunch of alts across the field) noticeably lower, which IMO would be the opportunity to buy heavier again.
Should that opportunity arise:
I'd say 6-7$ are likely and even somewhere in the 5s is definitely on the table. Just something to have on the radar in case of a little flush in the space.
Comment:
If btc continues further down, so will DOT - in that case I've mentioned the targets in the last update. Otherwise though, this is pretty much the last stand to stay internal, hitting some of the usual geometry I've been showing multiple times:
Log Geo:
Arithmethic Geo:
Log Geo:
Arithmethic Geo:
Comment:
Unchanged image from the Mar 29th update, when price was at 9.4$:
As mentioned in that update we now got into the mid 6$. So now the question remains if that red medianline cluster holds as support (green path) or we get another bigger flush down into the 5$ range (red path), either scenario could also happen after first slightly taking out the low (yellow path):
Zones of interest based on high/medium/low volume profile:
As mentioned in that update we now got into the mid 6$. So now the question remains if that red medianline cluster holds as support (green path) or we get another bigger flush down into the 5$ range (red path), either scenario could also happen after first slightly taking out the low (yellow path):
Zones of interest based on high/medium/low volume profile:
Comment:
What a weekend... the flush into the 5$ zone was immediately delivered.
Log geometry held the absolute low:
Arithmetic geometry held the daily close:
It would be nice if that was the end of a zigzag like this:
On lower timeframes it's certainly possible to see one more leg down even for that count, so mindful of that:
That would also work with reaching the lower high volume zone, which we haven't reached yet. On the other hand we only had a wick through the upper high volume zone and are currently above it again
Log geometry held the absolute low:
Arithmetic geometry held the daily close:
It would be nice if that was the end of a zigzag like this:
On lower timeframes it's certainly possible to see one more leg down even for that count, so mindful of that:
That would also work with reaching the lower high volume zone, which we haven't reached yet. On the other hand we only had a wick through the upper high volume zone and are currently above it again
Comment:
Just a quick one to point out where the move up coincidentally stopped:
Need to get above the red lines and hold there to have more conviction of resumed uptrend.
One more possibilitiy worth mentioning (shown roughly in the last image of the Jan. 30th update and again in d) in the Mar. 7th update), we might still have one larger move down coming to possibly finish the C-wave of a flat correction:
This could provide opportunities even in the lower 4$ range.
Need to get above the red lines and hold there to have more conviction of resumed uptrend.
One more possibilitiy worth mentioning (shown roughly in the last image of the Jan. 30th update and again in d) in the Mar. 7th update), we might still have one larger move down coming to possibly finish the C-wave of a flat correction:
This could provide opportunities even in the lower 4$ range.
Comment:
Arithmetic geometry:
Green below held as a support on multiple tests from above. Currently testing the blue from below.
Previously shown zones fo interest:
Sitting at the upper bound of the orange zone.
Log geometry:
Managed to get above the red median line cluster on the second try, gave a nice test from above, which held and gave a continuation upwards.
Holding 7.2$-7.3$ might give room up to 8$ (needs to break the blue from the first image).
Otherwise looking for a hold of further tests from above of the red median line cluster.
Green below held as a support on multiple tests from above. Currently testing the blue from below.
Previously shown zones fo interest:
Sitting at the upper bound of the orange zone.
Log geometry:
Managed to get above the red median line cluster on the second try, gave a nice test from above, which held and gave a continuation upwards.
Holding 7.2$-7.3$ might give room up to 8$ (needs to break the blue from the first image).
Otherwise looking for a hold of further tests from above of the red median line cluster.
Comment:
Basically just updating the 3 images from the last update.
Arithmetic geometry (blue lines) stopped the move up:
Median line cluster in log did not hold, but offered a short opportunity on the retest from below:
Sitting at the upper border of the first high volume zone:
Possible counts as previously suggested:
Orange for a finished zigzag, where you'd want the first high volume zone to hold. Yellow for an unfinished impulse, which could work as the C wave of a flat (compare last image of Apr. 16th update). In that case yellow wave 4 does not have to be finished yet and could turn into a bigger sideways move.
If that should play out, the lower high volume zone is one to watch (down to 5$) and like with the upper high volume zone, there's always a chance of a big wick through the zone to hunt some stops - could go into the lower 4$ range again.
Arithmetic geometry (blue lines) stopped the move up:
Median line cluster in log did not hold, but offered a short opportunity on the retest from below:
Sitting at the upper border of the first high volume zone:
Possible counts as previously suggested:
Orange for a finished zigzag, where you'd want the first high volume zone to hold. Yellow for an unfinished impulse, which could work as the C wave of a flat (compare last image of Apr. 16th update). In that case yellow wave 4 does not have to be finished yet and could turn into a bigger sideways move.
If that should play out, the lower high volume zone is one to watch (down to 5$) and like with the upper high volume zone, there's always a chance of a big wick through the zone to hunt some stops - could go into the lower 4$ range again.
We hit some resistance around 7.7$, a sustained break of that and hold above 8$ should get us up to the 9-10$ range for starters.
If my analysis has been helpful to you, consider showing some appreciation by buying me a coffee:
https://www.buymeacoffee.com/tophatpandamagician
or join me on my newly created patreon:
https://www.patreon.com/TophatPandaMagician
I will provide more detailed and frequent analysis as well as exclusive patreon only analysis over there.
A more detailed update on DOT has been posted on patreon.