DOGE/USD : A shity coin to watch closely
DOGE/USD - Technical analysis
Context :
The recent sell off on the crypto market is jeopardizing the euphoria in place since the last summer. The key factor to have in mind is that, there is a determinist in the market which allow us to anticipate the shape of the next move inside a delimited range of price regarding the sensibility of the initial condition (chaos therory).... This conditions are extracted from the psychologie of the people (Short-mid-long-term players) observable with data extracted from the chart (candle stick).
To make an easiest picture to understand, because chart and weather forcast are closely the same (chaos theory/initial condition used by the super computer to anticipate the weather), when an accumulation of depression signal are detected, combined with historical data + speed of wind + etc... you can anticipate for the next 1 to 7 days your risk to see rain or bad weather happening on the area you are leaving....
People with few experience in trading who never watch closely the shape of the asset patterns in the past on traditional market (exemple: the day of the Lehman Brother bankrupt).... at this period the crack of 2008 was just on the half way of the bearish market... are most of the time following advises from friend or news flow which are advising to HOLD.
HOLD is the same term used by Long-term player on the traditional market (retirement US hedge funds is the best exemple). As long as the elements watched by those investor class are not impacted (PNL) on their long run model, it make totally sense to buy the dips triggered by the short and mid-term investor who are optimising their PNL by selling the top and buying the dips inside the long-term run supported by the big fish - long-term player.
HOWEVER ones the big fish are changing their mind there is nothing to keep the market up, it is a massive dislocation of the market and hopefully the Central bank are here to save the market from the Chaos.
In the crypto sphere there is some big fish (except on BTC or ETH traded on futur by some institutional) but it is nothing to compare with the traditional market, and central bank are unexisting to save the decentrilised world. So everything is only pure psychologie and the resistance of the market to accept to kill a part of the gain until a specific tolerance limit.
We are now close to challenged this limit and i can tell you that they will be some dead fish soon.... i don't believe in the crypto market crash but a rotation in the portfolio will happen i pretty sure, pushing the people to sell in panic everything to be back on BTC, ETH or USDT for exemple.... Only the strong Token or blockchain with strong compliance schema and strong long-term business model will survive (HBAR for exemple is one of them speaking about blockchain). Because so many app, token, coin are created from off shore countries, without completing the regulator inquiries, etc... and when we have some alert from them, you see what happen...
The market can touch the sky by leading many individuals to follow some guru by using Social media (the liquidity is too low to counter this) etc.... but the Guru promises V.S your PNL at some point your primary fear will take the lead and a massive fear will push the market down.... and here we are not speaking about the massive leverage used by the crypto market to help the individual to borrow the money on the collateral to help the guru to push the market higher....
Analysis
Ok so now? i'm not saying to run away from the market, im here to warn you about some shit coin like DOGE and advise you to make a deep study of the Tokenomics and business models of company or coin when you decide to put the money on the crypto market to built a long-term portfolio (it is not the same analyse if you are sniping the market to play intraday move)
im here to show you a joke coin => DOGE COIN pushed by its guru MUSK to the sky like if the DOGE was the equivalent of the space X rocket. The market start to be a bit sceptical about the intervention of MUSK and regarding the facts of the psychologie of DOGE/USD chart i can tell you that Elliot wave printed 5 waves Up completing a first big cycle of bullish progression, and the determinist of the market in this kind of configuration lean towards a retracement from the begining between 50 and 61,8% of the rise = 0,03 and 0,0160 in log Scale and 0,1250 in Linear scale.
The first key resistance to observe are at 0,43/0,44 (short squeeze potential) - key fibo level and standard target for zigzag squeeze within a bearish structure.
Divergence on RSI which is clearly an alert signal is providing a potential at 0,16 => level from where the market start to overprice the coin - The RSI keeps downside potential and keep in mind that the RSI is not obliged to bounce from support it can also accumulate below 50% before bouncing.....
So watching just DOGE im clearly bearish with an invalidation level at 0,44 ( for exemple a daily close above 0,44 will invalidate the idea) because there is now a big risk to test 0,16 even 0,1250 first - then in case of capitulation the target area close 0... so there is a risk to see the coin be abandonned like other similar shity coin....
In this kind of market configuration the bearish potential is so huge that you can stay a HOLDER on BTC, ETH, HBAR, AAVE, BNB,SOL or other strong coin that can be impacted by the global bearish mood but this a long-term higher potential and protect the portfolio by changing your position to those coin or to sell them to protect the portfolio and bring you liquidity to buy the dips on strong Coin or Crypto currencies .
Take care all - don't use leverage - make your on analysis - don"t follow euphoria but the facts - and watch tutorial to learnt how to manage your money management to be able to determine the right position of the stop and target regarding your scenario and the capacity of the investment portfolio
Have a good week end
Context :
The recent sell off on the crypto market is jeopardizing the euphoria in place since the last summer. The key factor to have in mind is that, there is a determinist in the market which allow us to anticipate the shape of the next move inside a delimited range of price regarding the sensibility of the initial condition (chaos therory).... This conditions are extracted from the psychologie of the people (Short-mid-long-term players) observable with data extracted from the chart (candle stick).
To make an easiest picture to understand, because chart and weather forcast are closely the same (chaos theory/initial condition used by the super computer to anticipate the weather), when an accumulation of depression signal are detected, combined with historical data + speed of wind + etc... you can anticipate for the next 1 to 7 days your risk to see rain or bad weather happening on the area you are leaving....
People with few experience in trading who never watch closely the shape of the asset patterns in the past on traditional market (exemple: the day of the Lehman Brother bankrupt).... at this period the crack of 2008 was just on the half way of the bearish market... are most of the time following advises from friend or news flow which are advising to HOLD.
HOLD is the same term used by Long-term player on the traditional market (retirement US hedge funds is the best exemple). As long as the elements watched by those investor class are not impacted (PNL) on their long run model, it make totally sense to buy the dips triggered by the short and mid-term investor who are optimising their PNL by selling the top and buying the dips inside the long-term run supported by the big fish - long-term player.
HOWEVER ones the big fish are changing their mind there is nothing to keep the market up, it is a massive dislocation of the market and hopefully the Central bank are here to save the market from the Chaos.
In the crypto sphere there is some big fish (except on BTC or ETH traded on futur by some institutional) but it is nothing to compare with the traditional market, and central bank are unexisting to save the decentrilised world. So everything is only pure psychologie and the resistance of the market to accept to kill a part of the gain until a specific tolerance limit.
We are now close to challenged this limit and i can tell you that they will be some dead fish soon.... i don't believe in the crypto market crash but a rotation in the portfolio will happen i pretty sure, pushing the people to sell in panic everything to be back on BTC, ETH or USDT for exemple.... Only the strong Token or blockchain with strong compliance schema and strong long-term business model will survive (HBAR for exemple is one of them speaking about blockchain). Because so many app, token, coin are created from off shore countries, without completing the regulator inquiries, etc... and when we have some alert from them, you see what happen...
The market can touch the sky by leading many individuals to follow some guru by using Social media (the liquidity is too low to counter this) etc.... but the Guru promises V.S your PNL at some point your primary fear will take the lead and a massive fear will push the market down.... and here we are not speaking about the massive leverage used by the crypto market to help the individual to borrow the money on the collateral to help the guru to push the market higher....
Analysis
Ok so now? i'm not saying to run away from the market, im here to warn you about some shit coin like DOGE and advise you to make a deep study of the Tokenomics and business models of company or coin when you decide to put the money on the crypto market to built a long-term portfolio (it is not the same analyse if you are sniping the market to play intraday move)
im here to show you a joke coin => DOGE COIN pushed by its guru MUSK to the sky like if the DOGE was the equivalent of the space X rocket. The market start to be a bit sceptical about the intervention of MUSK and regarding the facts of the psychologie of DOGE/USD chart i can tell you that Elliot wave printed 5 waves Up completing a first big cycle of bullish progression, and the determinist of the market in this kind of configuration lean towards a retracement from the begining between 50 and 61,8% of the rise = 0,03 and 0,0160 in log Scale and 0,1250 in Linear scale.
The first key resistance to observe are at 0,43/0,44 (short squeeze potential) - key fibo level and standard target for zigzag squeeze within a bearish structure.
Divergence on RSI which is clearly an alert signal is providing a potential at 0,16 => level from where the market start to overprice the coin - The RSI keeps downside potential and keep in mind that the RSI is not obliged to bounce from support it can also accumulate below 50% before bouncing.....
So watching just DOGE im clearly bearish with an invalidation level at 0,44 ( for exemple a daily close above 0,44 will invalidate the idea) because there is now a big risk to test 0,16 even 0,1250 first - then in case of capitulation the target area close 0... so there is a risk to see the coin be abandonned like other similar shity coin....
In this kind of market configuration the bearish potential is so huge that you can stay a HOLDER on BTC, ETH, HBAR, AAVE, BNB,SOL or other strong coin that can be impacted by the global bearish mood but this a long-term higher potential and protect the portfolio by changing your position to those coin or to sell them to protect the portfolio and bring you liquidity to buy the dips on strong Coin or Crypto currencies .
Take care all - don't use leverage - make your on analysis - don"t follow euphoria but the facts - and watch tutorial to learnt how to manage your money management to be able to determine the right position of the stop and target regarding your scenario and the capacity of the investment portfolio
Have a good week end
Trade active:
After having reached 0,16 area the doge is bouncing back on the MM.
0,34 could already be enough to push the coin to the downside - invalidation level for new bearish attack is at 0,42 (instead 0,73) target 0,12 and in case of strong panic volatility 0,03 is the max target.
0,34 could already be enough to push the coin to the downside - invalidation level for new bearish attack is at 0,42 (instead 0,73) target 0,12 and in case of strong panic volatility 0,03 is the max target.
CIO & Head of market research (Automata - Akt.io)
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