A generation is thought to span approximately 22 years, forming recurring cycles of 4 generations.
Each cycle begins with a revolution generation, which informs the nature of the next three.
When did the most recent revolution generation begin? My best answer is The Unix Epoch (Midnight, Jan 1st, 1970). This was approximately the time that the microprocessor was invented and the USD was removed from the gold standard.
The Revolution generation created the first personal computers and the publicly available world wide web. These revolutionary technologies formed the foundation of the tech boom.
The next generation was able to utilize the inventions of the revolution, taking advantage of this newly discovered leverage to establish centralized organizations to manage and profit from mass data consumption and exchange.
We are currently rounding the zenith of the generational arc as we enter a period of tech stagnation. Advancements are becoming more incremental, Moore's law is reaching its limit in traditional computers, and the utility of quantum computers remains to be seen.
The final generation in the cycle is usually deconstructive in nature, dispersing the concentration of power accumulated during the utilization generation. This will likely be characterized by both physical and technological decentralization. Advancements in transport and communication technology combined with economic destabilization will incentivize living away from cities, resulting in a more distributed population.
As high bandwidth internet becomes increasingly accessible and budgets begin to tighten, people will seek free alternatives to platforms such as Netflix and Spotify, which have the potential to be outcompeted by decentralized media exchange platforms.
I expect this pattern to extend to social media as privacy becomes a greater concern.
The decentralization generation will master the blockchain. Bitcoin will likely mutate and adapt to challenges such as quantum computers, but as long as it maintains the longest chain, it will become the safe haven in a flight to safety resulting from a hyperinflation event (see related ideas for more).
The economic conclusions I draw from this analysis are the same as those I've drawn from technical analysis alone.
Cash is king during the initial deflation period = de-risk and de-leverage.
The crown will then pass to Bitcoin as we transition into the final generation of the cycle. Once Bitcoin reaches $1,000 USD it becomes the only investment opportunity worth considering in the depths of a major depression.
Once the cycle completes, if patience and health permit, we can look forward to investing our greatly appreciated bitcoin in the next revolution.
Each cycle begins with a revolution generation, which informs the nature of the next three.
When did the most recent revolution generation begin? My best answer is The Unix Epoch (Midnight, Jan 1st, 1970). This was approximately the time that the microprocessor was invented and the USD was removed from the gold standard.
The Revolution generation created the first personal computers and the publicly available world wide web. These revolutionary technologies formed the foundation of the tech boom.
The next generation was able to utilize the inventions of the revolution, taking advantage of this newly discovered leverage to establish centralized organizations to manage and profit from mass data consumption and exchange.
We are currently rounding the zenith of the generational arc as we enter a period of tech stagnation. Advancements are becoming more incremental, Moore's law is reaching its limit in traditional computers, and the utility of quantum computers remains to be seen.
The final generation in the cycle is usually deconstructive in nature, dispersing the concentration of power accumulated during the utilization generation. This will likely be characterized by both physical and technological decentralization. Advancements in transport and communication technology combined with economic destabilization will incentivize living away from cities, resulting in a more distributed population.
As high bandwidth internet becomes increasingly accessible and budgets begin to tighten, people will seek free alternatives to platforms such as Netflix and Spotify, which have the potential to be outcompeted by decentralized media exchange platforms.
I expect this pattern to extend to social media as privacy becomes a greater concern.
The decentralization generation will master the blockchain. Bitcoin will likely mutate and adapt to challenges such as quantum computers, but as long as it maintains the longest chain, it will become the safe haven in a flight to safety resulting from a hyperinflation event (see related ideas for more).
The economic conclusions I draw from this analysis are the same as those I've drawn from technical analysis alone.
Cash is king during the initial deflation period = de-risk and de-leverage.
The crown will then pass to Bitcoin as we transition into the final generation of the cycle. Once Bitcoin reaches $1,000 USD it becomes the only investment opportunity worth considering in the depths of a major depression.
Once the cycle completes, if patience and health permit, we can look forward to investing our greatly appreciated bitcoin in the next revolution.
