ANALYSIS OF THE CURRENT 5-YEAR BULL CYCLE
We would look at the 20 year cycle in the stock market, there are two individual 20-year cycles running together at a time. One cycle defines tops and the other identifies the major market lows. We would also look at the 20- year periodicity of repeating market fractals and the 5-year bull cycle that commences at the beginning of each 20-year cycle.
In subsequent updates we will identify the 8 - 13 subdivision of the 20-year cycle. To make the chart clean we have only indicated the cycle that defines bottoms. Top cycles will be identified in the description and both cycles combined on one linear scale to see how they relate to the 5-year bull cycle.
Our pivot point is taken at the 22nd August 1921 low.
First Cycle duration:
22/08/1921 - 27/04/1942 = (7553 days /1079 weeks /248.2 months)
= 20 years, 08 months, 05 days.
Cycle 2:
27/04/1942 - 25/06/1962 = (7364 days / 1052 weeks / 242 months)
= 20 years, 01 month, 29 days.
Cycle 3:
25/06/1962 - 16/08/1982 = (7357 days / 1051 weeks / 241.7 months)
= 20 years, 01 months, 22 days
Cycle 4:
16/08/1982 - 07/10/2002 = (7352 days / 1051 weeks / 241.7 months)
= 20 years, 01 month, 21 days
Cycle 5:
07/10/2002 - 10/10/2022 = (7308 days / 1044 weeks / 240.1 months)
= 20 years, 0 month, 03 days
By observation, cycle 3 and 4 have the same duration 7357 days while cycle 2 is (+7 days) off 7357 days, i.e 1 candle on the weekly timeframe. Now, looking at the beginning points of each cycle, within the identified ellipses we see a striking fractal that has been consistent in all 5 cycles.
Cycle 1 and 2
Cycle 3 and 4
Cycle 5 and 6
The 20-year cycle that defines tops are on :
27th May 1946
7th February 1966
24th August 1987
8th October 2007
XX - XX - 2027
Cycle 1 origin point is on 22/08/1921 but has a split focus at two points, one on the 1921 pivot and the other on the much popular May 1924 low.
Representing both cycles (Bottoms and tops)
This shows that between the two origin points is approximately a 5-year cycle
This cycle is actually an astrocycle and varies according to the changing speed.
By observation, Fractal 1 is very much identical to fractal 4 and fracal 2 very much identical to 5. A time span of 60 years averagely separate fractals 1 and 4 as well as 2 and 5. This leaves the 1962 - 1966 cycle, 60 years from 1962 puts the origin for the new identical fractal at the October 2022 low.
The above justifies that if the cycle is not inverted then a point on the current price action should not be broken. Also it negates the numerous calls for a crash that has been chanted since the 2020 low and never materialized.
HOWEVER, there is the 101-year cycle which alternate tops for bottoms and vice versa after its completion, and considering the pivot from 22/08/1921 the 101 years ended at the October 2022 low.
Interesting... check back as we would go through the numerical expansions that shed more light on what to expect forward, price levels, and time resistances.
Thanks for your time, all opinions are much appreciated, questions would be answered too.
Good luck.
In subsequent updates we will identify the 8 - 13 subdivision of the 20-year cycle. To make the chart clean we have only indicated the cycle that defines bottoms. Top cycles will be identified in the description and both cycles combined on one linear scale to see how they relate to the 5-year bull cycle.
Our pivot point is taken at the 22nd August 1921 low.
First Cycle duration:
22/08/1921 - 27/04/1942 = (7553 days /1079 weeks /248.2 months)
= 20 years, 08 months, 05 days.
Cycle 2:
27/04/1942 - 25/06/1962 = (7364 days / 1052 weeks / 242 months)
= 20 years, 01 month, 29 days.
Cycle 3:
25/06/1962 - 16/08/1982 = (7357 days / 1051 weeks / 241.7 months)
= 20 years, 01 months, 22 days
Cycle 4:
16/08/1982 - 07/10/2002 = (7352 days / 1051 weeks / 241.7 months)
= 20 years, 01 month, 21 days
Cycle 5:
07/10/2002 - 10/10/2022 = (7308 days / 1044 weeks / 240.1 months)
= 20 years, 0 month, 03 days
By observation, cycle 3 and 4 have the same duration 7357 days while cycle 2 is (+7 days) off 7357 days, i.e 1 candle on the weekly timeframe. Now, looking at the beginning points of each cycle, within the identified ellipses we see a striking fractal that has been consistent in all 5 cycles.
Cycle 1 and 2
Cycle 3 and 4
Cycle 5 and 6
The 20-year cycle that defines tops are on :
27th May 1946
7th February 1966
24th August 1987
8th October 2007
XX - XX - 2027
Cycle 1 origin point is on 22/08/1921 but has a split focus at two points, one on the 1921 pivot and the other on the much popular May 1924 low.
Representing both cycles (Bottoms and tops)
This cycle is actually an astrocycle and varies according to the changing speed.
By observation, Fractal 1 is very much identical to fractal 4 and fracal 2 very much identical to 5. A time span of 60 years averagely separate fractals 1 and 4 as well as 2 and 5. This leaves the 1962 - 1966 cycle, 60 years from 1962 puts the origin for the new identical fractal at the October 2022 low.
The above justifies that if the cycle is not inverted then a point on the current price action should not be broken. Also it negates the numerous calls for a crash that has been chanted since the 2020 low and never materialized.
HOWEVER, there is the 101-year cycle which alternate tops for bottoms and vice versa after its completion, and considering the pivot from 22/08/1921 the 101 years ended at the October 2022 low.
Interesting... check back as we would go through the numerical expansions that shed more light on what to expect forward, price levels, and time resistances.
Thanks for your time, all opinions are much appreciated, questions would be answered too.
Good luck.