It's time for a new weekend gap. Without looking at the upcoming news schedule, I can almost certainly say that something will happen that can drive the markets up on Monday. The reason is that shorting here would just be too simple. Of course we have enough targets on the downside to collect, but we also have two down gaps out of the blue during the last week that have to be closed. If you see the current retracement as ABC correction leg C is still missing at least and this should be a Fibonacci projection of leg A in most cases 1 or 1.61 times as long. A longer leg C would fit because it usually will be the most powerful move in a retracement.
Two levels to watch out for because the daily Kijun can always be seen as the "fair" price and it aligns with the current lower limit of the lower gap and the 50% retracement of the move down which could be seen as the minimum target for a retracement in general. This means there are chances that the gap will not be closed and price turns around right at the Kijun. So what? it's still some way to get therefrom current levels. And then there is the chance to hit the more interesting target at the 1.61 projection that would not only close both gaps but also aligns with a 78% retracement of the last down move and all this while still keeping the overall short picture intac. According to the rules of the Ichimoku cloud there is room for a recovery to the Tenkan at 11500 what would allow the price to stay well within the statistical probability distribution as marked by the boundaries of the Bollinger bands.
All in all a tidy opportunity to shave off some profits by going long here before the close to speculate on a up gap on Monday.
Two levels to watch out for because the daily Kijun can always be seen as the "fair" price and it aligns with the current lower limit of the lower gap and the 50% retracement of the move down which could be seen as the minimum target for a retracement in general. This means there are chances that the gap will not be closed and price turns around right at the Kijun. So what? it's still some way to get therefrom current levels. And then there is the chance to hit the more interesting target at the 1.61 projection that would not only close both gaps but also aligns with a 78% retracement of the last down move and all this while still keeping the overall short picture intac. According to the rules of the Ichimoku cloud there is room for a recovery to the Tenkan at 11500 what would allow the price to stay well within the statistical probability distribution as marked by the boundaries of the Bollinger bands.
All in all a tidy opportunity to shave off some profits by going long here before the close to speculate on a up gap on Monday.