$DDOG shares are down after reporting a great quarter and I feel this is an opportune time to buy the dip. I see max pain being the gap down to $60 however there is a gap that leads us back to nearly $50.
A couple more things on $DDOG and software...
In general I've seen software exuberance work generally in waves. People buy into buying, happened on ZM IPO, CRWD IPO, DDOG IPO; it occurred it late 2018, in 2019, and here we are again at another software (or just were) peak. Software goes through these radical volatility swings regularly and at this point as an investor I am used to it, hence why I want to buy the dip. This is not to say that software won't consolidate for a year after a tremendous run off the lows & to new highs - this has exactly happened before, see SQ OKTA Z... etc (TSLA also). An argument could also be made that even with the mythical 'value trade' coming that takes down tech and brings the 'real' market back where it's fair valued, one could argue that tech still has more to go both long term and short; and hey, I'll make that argument! I am not concerned about valuations (although if we were to continue following the trend line I drew $DDOG would get >50x 2020 sales which is pretty crazy even considering SHOP ZM.
I believe that in the future (the near future, not 10 years, <1) $DDOG will be at new highs and buying the dip here will work as a nice entry long term. However it remains to be seen if/when this famed, at this point mythical value rotation actually takes place. Sure if and when there's a vaccine COVID-hit stocks will likely rally, and this is value. But in the mean-time, and certainly after that rally, software will be back in gear. $DDOG will grow nearly 60% with positive non-gaap net income & cash flows in a pandemic. If you do the DCF analysis into 2024 at 40% CAGR I believe you will see the value I am talking about. Happy to buy $DDOG here if software gets back in style in the short term, happy to buy at $60 if we've carved a new range and decide to fill the gap at some point, and happy to buy at $50 if we ever decide to fill that gap as well. Today I begin adding to $DDOG for the first time really since March, and I will do it with patience and let the price action play out. $DDOG trades at nearly 40x sales even after today's drop, and the market can certainly decide to drop that by 25% again if it so chooses.
A couple more things on $DDOG and software...
In general I've seen software exuberance work generally in waves. People buy into buying, happened on ZM IPO, CRWD IPO, DDOG IPO; it occurred it late 2018, in 2019, and here we are again at another software (or just were) peak. Software goes through these radical volatility swings regularly and at this point as an investor I am used to it, hence why I want to buy the dip. This is not to say that software won't consolidate for a year after a tremendous run off the lows & to new highs - this has exactly happened before, see SQ OKTA Z... etc (TSLA also). An argument could also be made that even with the mythical 'value trade' coming that takes down tech and brings the 'real' market back where it's fair valued, one could argue that tech still has more to go both long term and short; and hey, I'll make that argument! I am not concerned about valuations (although if we were to continue following the trend line I drew $DDOG would get >50x 2020 sales which is pretty crazy even considering SHOP ZM.
I believe that in the future (the near future, not 10 years, <1) $DDOG will be at new highs and buying the dip here will work as a nice entry long term. However it remains to be seen if/when this famed, at this point mythical value rotation actually takes place. Sure if and when there's a vaccine COVID-hit stocks will likely rally, and this is value. But in the mean-time, and certainly after that rally, software will be back in gear. $DDOG will grow nearly 60% with positive non-gaap net income & cash flows in a pandemic. If you do the DCF analysis into 2024 at 40% CAGR I believe you will see the value I am talking about. Happy to buy $DDOG here if software gets back in style in the short term, happy to buy at $60 if we've carved a new range and decide to fill the gap at some point, and happy to buy at $50 if we ever decide to fill that gap as well. Today I begin adding to $DDOG for the first time really since March, and I will do it with patience and let the price action play out. $DDOG trades at nearly 40x sales even after today's drop, and the market can certainly decide to drop that by 25% again if it so chooses.