According to USDA’s August forecast of the 2022 cotton crop, U.S. production is projected at 12.6 million bales, considerably below last season’s final estimate of 17.5 million bales and the lowest crop estimate in 13 years. Compared with 2021, cotton harvested area is also forecast significantly (31 percent) lower, but a higher national yield limits a further production decline.
Based on the August forecast, 2022 cotton planted acreage is estimated at nearly 12.5 million acres—the area indicated in the June Acreage report and the highest in 3 years, as cotton prices heading into planting season were at historically high levels. However, drought conditions this season in the Southwest—the largest cotton region—is expected to reduce harvested area there dramatically. As a result, a substantially lower U.S. cotton harvested acreage estimate (7.1 million acres) is forecast, the smallest in over 150 years. However, the U.S. abandonment rate projection (43 percent) is the highest on record. The U.S. cotton yield is forecast at 846 pounds per harvested acre in 2022, slightly above the 3-year average.
Upland cotton production in 2022 is forecast at 12.2 million bales, 29 percent (5 million bales) below 2021 and the smallest crop since 2009. During the past 20 years, the August upland production forecast was above the final estimate 12 times and below it 8 times. Past differences between the August forecast and the final production estimates indicate a 2 out of 3 chance for the 2022 upland crop to range between 11 million and 13.3 million bales.
