This analysis is based on Open interest, Commitment of Traders, and the price swing.
As you can see on the link above, the commercials have been adding short positions since October 24, 2016 (since the price spike). If you look closely to the OI, there was a recent drop meaning that they are unloading short positons.
This also lines up with commercial report which is in the 56,000 red contracts.
Characteristics of a price swing could also apply here.
This is a dangerous move fundamentally speaking, as the Trump is appointing a new FED chair in a few hours, and there are reports saying US economy is good.. (everything is the same since trump got elected fundamentally speaking - other than raise in indices of course). There are rumours that there could be a crash in the stock market, and if that happens we are seeing a rise in naturally.. Hence why this is a dangerous move. But everything equal to today (fundamentally speaking), this move should pay off.
-For my Own record keeping-