Can the Russian bear stop the oil bulls?

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
The current rally in crude oil is clearly supported by concerns on the supply side. It is the combination of missing production from three large producers: Iran, Venezuela and Lybia. While OPEC was also trying to support prices by the production cut aggrement the US production reached new all time high at 12.2M bpd. It's not surprising that Russia came out with the idea that more cuts are not necessary and they may abandone the agreement with OPEC to fight for market share with US. This move in a combination with stabilistion of the Lybian or Venezuelan situation could easily lead to a drop of the WTI price below 50 or even 40 dollars. The Russian budget is calculated on a very conservative estimate of $43pb and hence the question is if they really want o hurt shale producers and get some extra market share. We need more clarity on this before get super bearish , especially after Mr. Putin came out to give his support to the cooperation with OPEC today and therefore the reversal could be delayed

From technical point of view we reached on the WTI chart the top of an important supply zone and the hesitation is cleary visible on the weekly chart ( shooting star ). The 65 dollar level could and most likely also will be tested soon, although there is a good chance bulls may start to book some profits. However at this point the market has broken the previous uptrendline and this means more upside. However we see a lot of false breaks nowadays th test of the $65 lvl could be just a right time to reload the shorts.
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