johangradin

PAIR TRADE L CORN SS CRUDE

NYMEX:CL1!   Light Crude Oil Futures
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Technically crude is at an 61.8% retracement + at decending TL
Corn is breaking a minor decending TL to the upside, and has been at a 50% retracement

On the backdrop for Corn we have historical USDA low usage of corn stocks ratio, and a very big reversion in the ammount an avarge corn bushel yields x arce farmland down from 2009 about 34%!!
+ seasonality for corn indicates peaking prices in May.. Historically, another backdrop to pay attention to.

Crude:
January 4th 2013 had a dramatic drop in crude inventories -11M vs. -0.7M

December 11th 2011 had a dramatic drop in crude inventories -10.6M vs. -2.8M
Crude inventories proceeded to pick up in the weeks after, with a price drop of about 20$!
The same thing happened in 2010 late to early 2011, but the price dropped way less, about 5$ or less.

Crude price seasonality bottom in late february and rise up to May, another backdrop to pay attention to.

Comments

took it off incrementally ages ago
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