USOIL/WTI/CL (crude oil) 25% retracement, next bullish explosion
First of all: Where are we?
For having a better idea about the scale and location of my analysis, I added this snapshot of the chart in the weekly timeframe:
About the core of my idea:
My analysis is based on the weekly AND 13h timeframe.
Well, once again, I spotted an interesting downtrend channel in the weekly. And as always, I am waiting for the price to come back down, and retest said channel.
This time, I am waiting for it to find support on the middle of the channel.
That expectation is fueled by the following:
In the 13h timeframe, I found a channel, which has already proven to be reliable, as the green rectangles prove.
As always, I won't try to catch every move, but just the ones I patiently wait for to happen - and I will only take the chance if everything works out as planned - or I will replace my analysis with a newer one. I don't desperately chase a trade, and if my scenario doesn't happen out as expected, I decide to miss out on the trade.
Remeber, there are plenty more opportunities to make money in the market - on a daily basis. So, I'd recommend to quickly move on if something doesn't work out properly, and look for a better, more reliable opportunity. Even if that means to miss out on a 60%, or 178% move. Be patient, and have a strict trading plan about WHEN to execute a trade, and WHETHER to execute it, or better skip it.
So, what is the core of my idea?
I am waiting for oil to continue its correction until it enters my buy area (50.10 USD).
When it comes to "timing", I am expecting the price to ideally find support when both channels meet each other, and when it hit my buy zone of 50.10 USD.
From there, my trade setup will look like this:
I am using a very tight stop loss in this trade, because there is a chance, price just pierces through this support area, and re-visits the lower areas of both channels. Due to that, it wouldn't make any sense to extend the stop loss, but instead, try again later, when it finds support in the lower areas of said channels.
The initial RRR (Risk/Reward-Ratio) is approx. 47, if it keeps soaring, the RRR may later increase towards 124-ish.
I received some PMs about the white "construction" and what it is. Unfortunately, I am not allowed/willing to share what this is about, due to disclosure-issues; All I can say is, that it has proven to be very reliable, and I will always include this "censored" and simplified version of it in my ideas, as it's part of the whole core-idea. It's basically points of reversal, future support and resistance, so basically: I use these white lines for closing trades, or taking profits.
Conclusion:
I am very confident that we will see prices as high as 80, or even 135-ish in oil at some point, and I don't want to ignore this possibility. On the other hand, I will try to find a RELIABLE entry, and will skip on it, in case it doesn't work out as planned.
targets with price-tags:
Take care everyone, and thank you for reading. ;) As always, feel free to download this analysis for better understanding or scaling!
For having a better idea about the scale and location of my analysis, I added this snapshot of the chart in the weekly timeframe:
About the core of my idea:
My analysis is based on the weekly AND 13h timeframe.
Well, once again, I spotted an interesting downtrend channel in the weekly. And as always, I am waiting for the price to come back down, and retest said channel.
This time, I am waiting for it to find support on the middle of the channel.
That expectation is fueled by the following:
In the 13h timeframe, I found a channel, which has already proven to be reliable, as the green rectangles prove.
As always, I won't try to catch every move, but just the ones I patiently wait for to happen - and I will only take the chance if everything works out as planned - or I will replace my analysis with a newer one. I don't desperately chase a trade, and if my scenario doesn't happen out as expected, I decide to miss out on the trade.
Remeber, there are plenty more opportunities to make money in the market - on a daily basis. So, I'd recommend to quickly move on if something doesn't work out properly, and look for a better, more reliable opportunity. Even if that means to miss out on a 60%, or 178% move. Be patient, and have a strict trading plan about WHEN to execute a trade, and WHETHER to execute it, or better skip it.
So, what is the core of my idea?
I am waiting for oil to continue its correction until it enters my buy area (50.10 USD).
When it comes to "timing", I am expecting the price to ideally find support when both channels meet each other, and when it hit my buy zone of 50.10 USD.
From there, my trade setup will look like this:
I am using a very tight stop loss in this trade, because there is a chance, price just pierces through this support area, and re-visits the lower areas of both channels. Due to that, it wouldn't make any sense to extend the stop loss, but instead, try again later, when it finds support in the lower areas of said channels.
The initial RRR (Risk/Reward-Ratio) is approx. 47, if it keeps soaring, the RRR may later increase towards 124-ish.
I received some PMs about the white "construction" and what it is. Unfortunately, I am not allowed/willing to share what this is about, due to disclosure-issues; All I can say is, that it has proven to be very reliable, and I will always include this "censored" and simplified version of it in my ideas, as it's part of the whole core-idea. It's basically points of reversal, future support and resistance, so basically: I use these white lines for closing trades, or taking profits.
Conclusion:
I am very confident that we will see prices as high as 80, or even 135-ish in oil at some point, and I don't want to ignore this possibility. On the other hand, I will try to find a RELIABLE entry, and will skip on it, in case it doesn't work out as planned.
targets with price-tags:
Take care everyone, and thank you for reading. ;) As always, feel free to download this analysis for better understanding or scaling!