FX:CHFJPY   Swiss Franc / Japanese Yen
Confluence on this trade:
1. Bullish Market Sentiment & Bias
2. Weekly 50 & 60 EMAs broke above and crossed the 200 & 250 EMAs
3. Double Bottom
4. Tweezer Bottoms - followed by bullish engulfing .
5. Low Test on Weekly Chart to end the week
6. MACD Divergence - Bullish
7. Deceleration
8. Daily Rejection of 50 & 60 EMAs
9. 4H Break and Re-test of Bearish trend line with a 50% Retrace rejection
10. Neutral Swiss Franc , Weak Japenese Yen


Update on this pair 2+ weeks into the trade. We did make slow progress up towards the first target level of 114.8 Key Level. However to end the week we had a huge bearish engulfing candle driving price back down to the weekly key level.
What caused this? BOJ Gov Kuroda Speech. As head of the central bank, which controls short term interest rates, he has important influence over the nation's currency value. Traders scrutinize his speeches as they are often used to drop subtle clues regarding future monetary policy and interest rate shifts.
The statement was more hawkish than expected, causing the Yen to gain strength. This could be a huge turning point in terms of Japanese Yen strength. If price breaks the Key Weekly Levels at 112.3 and 111.5 followed by a retest, we will have broken an re-tested the EMAs showing a shift in sentiment to the downside which will shift my bias on this pair to bearish. However if price is unable to break these Keys and we do get deceleration and rejection candles, i only see this pair along with correlated pairs heading higher.

Gov Kuroda also said as follows: Japanese financial institutions, while they did not directly suffer much from the Crisis, also have increased their capital levels, in line with the stricter requirements at the global level. Under the powerful monetary easing by the Bank of Japan, they are actively taking risks in lending and securities investment, thereby positively influencing the Japanese economy and prices, which reflects in part their increasingly robust capital base. This clearly shows that the stability of the financial system is essential for monetary policy to be fully effective.
+6 Reply
thanks pro
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