Bitcoin update before FED Funds rate 22.03.2023

Fed Funds rate.

There is an
88% chance of a 0.25%
11% chance of a 0.0%
Fed rate hike at tonight's meeting.

The Fed is in a situation where they can't raise the rate and can't not raise the rate, so it's more likely we will see 0.25 today. More important is Jerome Powell's rhetoric as always.

It is hard to make predictions from his speech. Most likely, he will again try to calm everybody and say that everything is fine. We are more interested in his comments on inflation and the banking crisis.


I think it will be one of the most important meetings this year, after which the market will decide the further outcome of the move.

If all is OK, then we expect continued growth until May.

If all is bad, then we go to test 25k and after 23

I think that we will have the second scenario. after the calm and positive we will see growth, the removal of liquidity from above to the area of 29.1 + and then go down because the banking crisis has not disappeared - it remains

Waiting for correction

Several factors why bitcoin should show a correction

1. Volume profile - in the area of 29-30.5
2. A huge amount of long positions on different tokens (to be liquidated)
3. Slowdown in growth
4. Exponential movement
5. Overbought on many indicators
6. Potential collection of liquidity zones below (blue boxes - liquidity zones)

P.S. My scenario is to collect stop losses above 28.5 and then go down

Best regards EXCAVO

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Trade active:

Still in short position

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still in position

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🔴 CFTC lawsuit against Binance

- CZ corresponded with all of Binance's top managers and various teams at the company via Signal, using the automatic deletion functionality. And mandated that all employees use Signal if they would discuss blocking users from the United States.

- Binance has been trading on its platform through ~300 of its own accounts (multi-account detected) that are directly or indirectly owned by CZ. CZ also has two accounts of his own that he used to trade personally.

- In February 2019, former Binance compliance director Lim, in correspondence with a colleague after receiving information about Hamas transactions on Binance, explained to his colleague that terrorists typically send "small amounts" because "large amounts represent money laundering." Lima's colleague replied, "you can hardly buy an AK47 for 600 bucks."

- BTC, ETH, LTC, USDT and BUSD and other cryptocurrencies mentioned in the document are "commodities."

- Binance has been making official guides on how to use VPNs to educate US users on how to circumvent the blocking, as well as using other "creative methods" to keep them using the exchange after the ban. CZ turned a blind eye to this.

- In June 2019, CZ said: "28 countries, are under U.S. sanctions, and to work with them, you have to submit all the relevant documents for regulatory review, it's not a good fit for our company's structure."

- In January 2019, CZ said it did not want to impose a KYC for the U.S. on binance.com.

- The 2 BTC trading limit for non-verified customers in 2019 allowed a large number of U.S. users to trade on Binance using a VPN.

- On October 9, 2020, CZ had a conversation in which it was discussed that one large strategic customer (a trading company, headquartered in Chicago), a top 5 company that provided 12% of its trading volume, was continuing to trade on Binance.

- In October 2020, CZ asked that the line with 2.8 million users in the Binance report be changed from "USA" to "UNKWN."
Here's that report: i.imgur.com/qx0aAmG.jpeg


- Some analysts are speculating that the CFTC suit was filed without notice as a political move to show the SEC that the suit against Binance is about commodities and it is in their jurisdiction.

Analyst Adam Cochran (twitter.com/adamscoc.../1640378686397448192) on Twitter suggests that
- Binance US has no future.
- Market makers with U.S. beneficiaries will disappear from Binance
- Payment services for Binance International in the U.S. or partner countries will be shut down permanently
- Technically, Binance International is breaking the rules by offering any trading services even outside the U.S.

- Binance Labs may be facing liquidation
- Binance faces billions of dollars in fines: refunds of all commissions, salaries, income, liquidations, etc. for all individuals and entities based in the US starting in 2017 + civil penalties
- The Binance team will never again be able to legally own U.S. securities, or work for U.S. companies