HI Traders,
I have like the most of you wondered when or why have'nt we hit our bottom yet but i think i have an idea that may answer a few questions.
1. Have we hit our bottom?
Probability is I don't believe we have, what i think has happened is that the FTX swan event pushed our B wave correction down into what looks like a 5th wave but actually a running flat and that extends C normally 100% of the push past 3. Running flats are common in 4th wave corrections but this one is expanded by the FTX event. My wave count has us with the 3rd wave correcting at 1.218 fib retracement which normally means that the 5th would be extended thus all the predictions of BTC going to 1ooo but the extended wave past 3 i believe is our B correction due to the fact that its a zig zag and i cannot find the impulse that makes up the last leg of the C of the B wave. Long story short, 3rd waves normally have the most volume and we do see that on the B WAVE and thats why most people think thats the 3rd wave. I believe wave 4 will finish around 27k mark and then turn down, the only question is will the 5th be extended or not?
2. Volume
Most volume in impulse waves (1,3,5) are normally shown on the 3rd sub level of the 3rd wave but most corrections i see a lot of volume on the 4th wave and that is showing up again in this scenario, we have massive volume in this correction leading me to believe that this is all a correction and the probability of a bottom is not likely.
3. Manipulation
I have mentioned a number of times in my other posts that most of the buy-in has been from wallets with 1000-10000 BTC wallets and that 85% of the volume has been from USA institutions thus retail or shrimp have not really bought into this narrative that the media is pushing really hard that we have found the bottom. I guess the only way we find out is with time, will the whales take advantage of the 15% that has bought in and short all the way down to the new found bottom????
Leave your thoughts and comments
Always a pleasure and trade with a stop loss for goodness sake :)
I have like the most of you wondered when or why have'nt we hit our bottom yet but i think i have an idea that may answer a few questions.
1. Have we hit our bottom?
Probability is I don't believe we have, what i think has happened is that the FTX swan event pushed our B wave correction down into what looks like a 5th wave but actually a running flat and that extends C normally 100% of the push past 3. Running flats are common in 4th wave corrections but this one is expanded by the FTX event. My wave count has us with the 3rd wave correcting at 1.218 fib retracement which normally means that the 5th would be extended thus all the predictions of BTC going to 1ooo but the extended wave past 3 i believe is our B correction due to the fact that its a zig zag and i cannot find the impulse that makes up the last leg of the C of the B wave. Long story short, 3rd waves normally have the most volume and we do see that on the B WAVE and thats why most people think thats the 3rd wave. I believe wave 4 will finish around 27k mark and then turn down, the only question is will the 5th be extended or not?
2. Volume
Most volume in impulse waves (1,3,5) are normally shown on the 3rd sub level of the 3rd wave but most corrections i see a lot of volume on the 4th wave and that is showing up again in this scenario, we have massive volume in this correction leading me to believe that this is all a correction and the probability of a bottom is not likely.
3. Manipulation
I have mentioned a number of times in my other posts that most of the buy-in has been from wallets with 1000-10000 BTC wallets and that 85% of the volume has been from USA institutions thus retail or shrimp have not really bought into this narrative that the media is pushing really hard that we have found the bottom. I guess the only way we find out is with time, will the whales take advantage of the 15% that has bought in and short all the way down to the new found bottom????
Leave your thoughts and comments
Always a pleasure and trade with a stop loss for goodness sake :)
