BTC: Long on bullish breakout from downtrend (1,4R)
I've set the stop limit order for that trade according to the long tool in the chart.
Background:
I'm generally bearish and I want the price to convince me that we have a reversal. Otherwise I'll just trail my setup down until there is a real reversal.
Hypothesis:
To have a highly probable successful trade (please tell me if there is a better wording for that) I want to trade a bullish breakout from the long term down trend. I expect that to be a trigger for a reversal.
To reduce the risk, other resistances will have to be crossed:
o upper Bollinger Band boundary
o the high of the consolidation
Target:
My target is the opening price of the candle that triggered the last big drop in price
Stop loss:
o below the descending downtrend wedge line
o below the consolidation high
o below a support in the 4H time frame
Position size:
20% of my portfolio which I plan to use for XLM. As I'm currently in USDT and don't wont to get into it again for the time being I have to go into BTC first at Bittrex as it doesn't have an USDT/XLM pair.
Advantage:
I expect the breakout from the consolidation high and the downtrend to be significant.
Disadvantage:
R:R is okish for me but it could be higher. While there is no good reason to raise the target I might find ways to move the entry or the stop-loss as price develops
Disclaimer:
I'm a bloody beginner learning trading since september and I'm only publishing that to make use of the teddy bear effect. I expect to be more aware and conscious about what I'm doing by making it public and to also motivate me more to review my trades correctly. This is why it is obviously not financial advice.
Your feedback is welcome!
Please tell me your opinions as I'm looking forward to other views on my trade idea in the comments and please click thumbs up if you like it.
Background:
I'm generally bearish and I want the price to convince me that we have a reversal. Otherwise I'll just trail my setup down until there is a real reversal.
Hypothesis:
To have a highly probable successful trade (please tell me if there is a better wording for that) I want to trade a bullish breakout from the long term down trend. I expect that to be a trigger for a reversal.
To reduce the risk, other resistances will have to be crossed:
o upper Bollinger Band boundary
o the high of the consolidation
Target:
My target is the opening price of the candle that triggered the last big drop in price
Stop loss:
o below the descending downtrend wedge line
o below the consolidation high
o below a support in the 4H time frame
Position size:
20% of my portfolio which I plan to use for XLM. As I'm currently in USDT and don't wont to get into it again for the time being I have to go into BTC first at Bittrex as it doesn't have an USDT/XLM pair.
Advantage:
I expect the breakout from the consolidation high and the downtrend to be significant.
Disadvantage:
R:R is okish for me but it could be higher. While there is no good reason to raise the target I might find ways to move the entry or the stop-loss as price develops
Disclaimer:
I'm a bloody beginner learning trading since september and I'm only publishing that to make use of the teddy bear effect. I expect to be more aware and conscious about what I'm doing by making it public and to also motivate me more to review my trades correctly. This is why it is obviously not financial advice.
Your feedback is welcome!
Please tell me your opinions as I'm looking forward to other views on my trade idea in the comments and please click thumbs up if you like it.
Comment:
Bigger picture to see the downtrend wedge.
