Going up to at least 55k. Convince me otherwise!

BTCUSDT

My analysis is based on the Wyckoff Method. Once I identified the current consolidation area as ACCUMULATION, I used a horizontal column count on Point and Figure (PnF) chart (box size = ATR) to calculate a projection of the up move that should result from Cause accumulated in this consolidation area.

If you are familiar with Wyckoff schematics, the chart should be self-explanatory, so I'll just share my reasons for why I identified the current Trading Range (TR) as ACCUMULATION.

The Stopping Action in Phase A is very obvious here - the Extremely High volume is a sign of the Composite Operator (OC) stepping up and buying BTC. This is high quality demand meeting panicky selling, which is reflected in the candles with the tiny spread and huge volume near Selling Climax (SC).

Phase B begins after some more supply is absorbed at "ST". Now look at the volume throughout Phase B:

1) Volume shrinks on rallies. This is b/c most of the Supply has already been gobbled up by the OC in Phase A. Since OC is not selling, even the slightest increase in Demand is enough to drive the price up.

2) Volume expands on retracements. This is b/c OC is buying, trying to absorb every last drop of Supply.

3) Sell Volume is obviously decreasing from ST1 to ST2, also indicating that OC is absorbing Supply. ST3 has a bit more volume than ST2 - looks like UT2 has shaken some more Supply loose, which makes a Spring very likely.

Phase C now begins with a Spring Type 2. Since the last ST3 showed that the market still has some Supply, OC removes bids at the Support line to let the price drift slightly lower, to see if that scares up even more Supply. In this case it does not! The Volume on Spring is lower than on ST3, which means that Supply is now thoroughly exhausted. OC pushes the price back into the TR with the next green candle with higher volume.

After this a Test follows, showing even less Volume, which means that BTC is now ready for markup. Phase C is done.

Further evidence of a markup is:
1) OBV shows net accumulation
2) ADL shows net accumulation
3) RSI bounced off of MA(39) for the 3rd time, while making Higher Highs
4) Wyckoff analysis on the Weekly time frame also shows ACCUMULATION in Phase B. This means that in the future BTC can still go down to the neighborhood of 30k before going back up, but that's really long term.


So this is where I openned my Long position. From here I expect a JAC (Jump Across the Creek), which will be characterized by a candle with large spread and volume, then a bit of retracement to BU, and finally markup in Phase E.

Wyckoff Method postulates that Cause is built up by volatility in Phases B, C and D. The more volatility is recorded in that region, the higher the price will go. My PnF Chart calculation indicates that BTC has generated enough "fuel" to go up by $9000. Measuring from the bottom of the TR, we get at least 55k. The purple dashed lines in my chart indicate the target region.

What do you think?